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Kalshi, the popular prediction market, has released odds on whether any of the Democratic representatives from Texas will be arrested in August after skipping town to prevent a vote on a new GOP-drawn congressional map that will be more favorable to Republicans, at least in theory.
Texas Gov. Greg Abbott has ordered state police to arrest Democratic lawmakers who fled the state to block a redistricting vote, Axios reports. While the civil warrants carry little weight outside Texas, the standoff highlights a deepening clash over a map Democrats call 'illegal voter suppression.'
“If you continue to go down this road, there will be consequences,” House Speaker Rep. Dustin Burrows said from the chamber floor, later telling reporters that includes fines.
Some $53,000 had been bet at Kalshi thus far.
But gamblers aren't buying the threats from Abbott. Just 22 percent believe there will be any arrests made.
Texas Democrats on Monday prevented their state’s House of Representatives from moving forward, at least for now, with a redrawn congressional map sought by President Donald Trump to shore up Republicans’ 2026 midterm prospects as his political standing falters.
After dozens of Democrats left the state, the Republican-dominated House was unable to establish the quorum of lawmakers required to do business.
- Aaron Goldstein, Gambling911.com
