Bet on When Budget Reconciliation Bill Will Become Law: 80 Percent of Gambling Public Still Thinks By July 5

Submitted by Guest on

Written by :

Guest

Published on :

Republican leaders in the House were busy Wednesday trying to win over some final holdouts on President Donald Trump’s tax and spending cuts package — determined to seize momentum from a hard-fought vote in the Senate while essentially daring members to defy their party’s leader and vote against it.

“The American people gave us a clear mandate, and after four years of Democrat failure, we intend to deliver without delay,” the top four House GOP leaders said Tuesday after the bill passed the Senate 51-50, thanks to Vice President JD Vance’s tiebreaking vote.

It’s a risky gambit, one designed to meet Trump’s demand for a July 4 finish. Republicans have struggled mightily with the bill nearly every step of the way this year, often succeeding by only one vote. Their House majority stands at just 220-212, leaving little room for defections. 

Those at the Kalshi prediction market give the bill an 80% chance of becoming law by July 5 and a 90% chance of this happening by August 1.  Just shy of $410,000 in volume has come in on this market thus far. 

Some Republican holdouts are beginning to change their tune a bit entering Thursday. 

Rep. Warren Davidson, R-Ohio, was one of two House Republicans to oppose the earlier version of the bill passed by the House in May, citing deficit-spending concerns. But he said Wednesday he would support the more expensive Senate-passed bill.

“This bill isn’t perfect, but it’s the best we’ll get & includes major wins,” he wrote on the social platform X, citing border security, a “pro-growth tax policy,” Medicaid work requirements and more — most of which were part of the initial House bill.

- The Associated Press was used for this article

tc-jackson.png

Related Content

 Initiative Highlights Tribal Government Gaming’s $26.5 Billion in Economic Impact Across California

Initiative Highlights Tribal Government Gaming’s $26.5 Billion in Economic Impact Across California

While many Californians are familiar with tribal gaming, far fewer are aware of the industry's broader economic impact, including the jobs it supports, the wages it generates, and the billions of dollars it contributes to communities across the state.
ACR Poker Confirms 10 Percent Poker Rake on First Depost Before Processing Winnings

ACR Poker Confirms 10 Percent Poker Rake on First Depost Before Processing Winnings

The issue arose after a high stakes sports bettor was erroneously told by customer service that website policy required him to generate at least 10 percent rake on his winnings prior to making a withdrawal. It does not.
Bet on Most NHL Fights This Season, Most Penalties in 2026

Bet on Most NHL Fights This Season, Most Penalties in 2026

We don't think these markets have ever been done before
2026 Week 4 College Football Odds vs. AP Rankings

2026 Week 4 College Football Odds vs. AP Rankings

Texas is still the No. 1 team in college football according to the AP rankings, but they are not the favorites to be the last team standing in the College Football Playoff Championship.