Betting Markets Do Not See Yoon Out as President of South Korea By End of Year: Over $1 Million Bet

Despite the shock revelations that South Korea’s President Yoon Suk Yeo had imposed a short-lived and seemingly out of nowhere martial law this week, betting markets do not see his ouster coming by month's end.

Only 44 percent of those wagering at Polymarket believe the South Korean president will be removed or leave on his own accord by December 31, 2024. 

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Yoon Suk Yeol ceases to be the President of South Korea for any period of time between December 2, 2024 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Nearly $1.2 million had been wagered on this market over the last 24 hours.

President Yoon Suk Yeol faced parliamentary moves to impeach him after he sent heavily armed forces into Seoul’s streets with his baffling and sudden declaration of martial law that harkened to the country’s past dictatorships.

Opposition parties submitted the impeachment motion just hours after parliament unanimously voted to cancel Yoon’s declaration, forcing him to lift martial law about six hours after it began. Impeaching Yoon requires the support of two-thirds of the National Assembly and at least six of the nine Constitutional Court justices. The liberal opposition Democratic Party holds a majority in the 300-seat parliament and has called for Yoon’s resignation.

A vote on the impeachment motion could be held as early as Friday, Democratic Party lawmaker Kim Yong-min said.