Kash Patel, Howard Lutnick Exit Odds Plus Virginia Redistricting

Written by :

C Costigan

Published on :

20 April, 2026

On Tuesday, a special election in Virginia could allow Democrats to enact a redistricting measure that would net them as many as four House seats in this fall’s midterm elections.

If the referendum passes, Olivia Troye — a former adviser to Vice President Mike Pence — said she would run for Congress as a Democrat in Virginia’s proposed new 7th District.

BetOnline.ag has set odds on the measure passing and the numbers heavily favor it happening. Here are the numbers:

Will Virginia Redistricting Amendment pass?

Yes -1000

No +550

(Odds equate to a 91% implied probability measure will pass)

By what margin will the redistricting amendment in Virginia pass?

Over/Under 7%

In other political odds news, Kash Patel and Howard Lutnick are seeing their chances of hanging around as members of Trump's circle quickly diminish.

The Atlantic article titled “The FBI Director Is MIA,” has pushed people to bet against Patel, and Lutnick's upcoming testimony to Congress about Jeffrey Epstein has bettors banking against his future.

Interestingly, Patel, Lutnick, Pete Hegseth and Tulsi Gabbard are all favored to leave their posts before 2027.

Here are all the current Trump admin odds and changes:

Will Kash Patel leave position before 2027?

Yes -900

No +500

(Odds on April 13 were Yes -250, No +170)

Will Howard Lutnick leave position before 2027?

Yes -200

No +150

(Odds on April 13 were Yes +110, No -150)

Will Pete Hegseth leave position before 2027?

Yes -130