Makerfield By-Election Betting Odds

On Thursday, Britain is set for its most consequential by-election (special election) in its democratic history.

The prize is not merely one seat in parliament, but if Labour’s Andy Burnham takes it, he will almost certainly become prime minister within the next few weeks or months.

The by-election was called when the local MP suddenly resigned to make way for Greater Manchester Mayor Burnham, who would become eligible to stand for the party leadership if elected.  

The current Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, has been hugely weakened by a series of ministerial resignations since the last election, and is unlikely to survive beyond 2026. All the following markets, both for Thursday and longer term, are at stake.

Makerfield By-Election

Labour -600

Reform +350

Labour Vote Share

Over/Under 45.5%

Reform Vote Share

Over/Under 42.5

Next Prime Minister

Andy Burnham -325

Angela Rayner +650

Ed Miliband +1400

Wes Streeting +2000

Nigel Farage +2800

Al Carns +2800

Keir Starmer Exit Date (Year)

2026 -700

2027 +500

2028 +2500

2029 +1400

2030 Or Later +8000

Keir Starmer Exit Date (Month)

Apr-Jun +10000

Jul-Sep -250

Oct-Dec +400

2027 Or Later +375

Next World Leader To Leave

Keir Starmer -325

Benjamin Netanyahu +350

Luis Da Silva +800

Xavier Milei +2800

Donald Trump +2800

Emmanuel Macron +3300

Vladimir Putin +4000

Volodomyr Zelenskyy +4000

Recep Tayyip Erdogan +12500

Anthony Albanese +20000