November 4 Fallout and the Latest Senate, House Odds, More

Last week’s round of elections produced a series of resounding victories for the Democrats, winning by considerably larger margins than anticipated. In turn, there have been major movements across the odds board for BetOnline’s long-term politics markets.

First, they were already favorites to win back the House, and these results clearly demonstrated they are enjoying a similar ‘enthusiasm spike’ as we saw during the first Trump term.

A Democrat victory in the House now has -275 odds, up from -180 before the November 4 Election Day.

However, Congress is still forecast to be split, given the difficulty of the Senate map for Democrats. While their odds to win have shortened, Republicans remain firm favorites at -325 for the Senate.

The odds of a Democrat House/Republican Senate split is a pick ‘em at -115 each way.

Regarding 2028, the big win for Prop 50 does not just enhance their House prospects, but very much boosted Governor Gavin Newsom’s credentials as their leader-in-waiting. He is now down to just +375 to win the presidential election and +145 for the Democrat nomination.

And what of his closest rival in the betting? Zohran Mamdani’s win in New York may herald the emergence of a new, more progressive Democratic leadership, with Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at the forefront.

AOC remains the second-favorite behind Newsom for the Democrat nomination, but, equally, her chance of ousting Chuck Schumer as New York Senator looks stronger than ever. Of course, she hasn’t committed to either target yet.

BetOnline.ag is offering +120 odds that AOC even runs for the presidency, and -135 that Schumer fails to be re-elected in New York (regardless of who primaries him or the general).

2026 Midterm Election

House of Representatives

Democrats -275 (was -180 before Nov. 4)

Republicans +215

Senate

Republicans -325 (was -450 before Nov. 4)

Democrats +215

Balance

Dem House/GOP Senate -115

Both Republican +225

Both Democrat +240

2028 Presidential Election

U.S. President Elect

Vance +250 (was +225 before Nov. 4)

Newsom +375 (was +475 before Nov. 4)

Ocasio-Cortez +1100 (no change)

Trump sr. +1200 (was +1100 before Nov. 4)

Rubio +1600

Pritzker +1800

Shapiro +2000

Field (Any other candidate) +2500

Democratic Nominee

Newsom +145 (was +185 before Nov. 4)

Ocasio-Cortez +550

Shapiro +1000

Pritzker +1100

Field (Any other candidate) +1600

Will Schumer be re-elected as New York Senator?

Yes -105

No -135 (was -105 before Nov. 4)

- BetOnline Press