Nuclear War Betting Market Explodes as Israel Launches Attack on Iran: Kills Top Generals

Prediction markets last fall introduced a betting market on a nuclear war and search traffic for said betting market rose early Friday morning following news that Israel had launched an attack on Iran, killing many of that nation's senior military leaders and nuclear scientists.

At the time, the focus was on the Russian-Ukraine war.

The betting market for an Israeli strike on an Iranian nuclear facility came in at slightly under 20 percent as recently two days ago at Polymarket, rising to 35% by Wednesday and 45 percent Thursday morning.

Israel attacked Iran’s capital early Friday, with explosions booming across Tehran as Israel said it targeted nuclear and military sites.

The attack comes as tensions have reached new heights over Tehran’s rapidly advancing nuclear program. The Board of Governors at the International Atomic Energy Agency for the first time in 20 years on Thursday censured Iran over it not working with its inspectors. Iran immediately announced it would establish a third enrichment site in the country and swap out some centrifuges for more-advanced ones.

Israel for years has warned it will not allow Iran to build a nuclear weapon, something Tehran insists it doesn’t want — though official there have repeatedly warned it could build them.

The strikes were a “preemptive, precise, combined offensive” that included “dozens of targets” across Iran, the Israeli military official said.

The strike was the result of a joint operation between the Mossad, the IDF Ground Forces, and the Israeli Air Force

There was no US involvement or US assistance in the strikes, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said. 

“Tonight, Israel took unilateral action against Iran. We are not involved in strikes against Iran and our top priority is protecting American forces in the region. Israel advised us that they believe this action was necessary for its self-defense. President Trump and the Administration have taken all necessary steps to protect our forces and remain in close contact with our regional partners. Let me be clear: Iran should not target U.S. interests or personnel.” Rubio said in a statement.

Israel is believed to have attacked at least 6 military bases around Tehran.

The Natanz Nuclear facility was also reportedly struck. 

A betting market for a new US-Iranian nuclear deal witnessed a drop from a 44 percent chance to 29 percent chance at the prediction market Kalshi overnight Thursday (Eastern Time).