Odds of Joe Manchin Running for West Virginia Governor Near Even

West Virginia senator and now former-Democrat Joe Manchin (I-WV) registered as independent last week, and that's sparked speculation that he could run for governor of the state.

Manchin had previously served as that state's governor from 2005 to 2010 before becoming a senator. West Virginia term limits only bar one from running more than two consecutive terms.

Manchin insists he will not be running for governor, but gamblers think otherwise.  A betting market opened on Monday and has Manchin at +122 odds, or a 45% chance.  West Virginia's current governor, Jim Justice, a Republican, is expected to win Manchin's current Senate seat.

There has long been speculation that Manchin could run for president but he would need to file no later than August 1.

This market was being offered at Polymarket and will resolve to "Yes" if Joe Manchin announces that he is running for governor of West Virginia in the 2024 election by August 1, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Joe Manchin announces that he will not run for governor of West Virginia in this election, or that he will run for another position, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Joe Manchin and/or his official representative(s), however a consensus of credible data will also be used.