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The popular online prediction market Kalshi is giving a US government shutdown at the end of January 2026 a 39 percent chance of happening as of December 12.
That website asks "Does the government hate working?"
Just over $200,000 had traded on this event thus far.
The outcome will be official "If the website of the U.S. Office of Personnel Management contains a notice that the government at least partially shut down on January 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET due to a lapse in appropriations, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from U.S. Office of Personnel Management."
Those chances might even be higher if people were paying attention. They're probably not overall as the holiday season is well underway and folks just want to get through the rest of this year.
Washington, DC-based law firm Bergson & Campbell explained why the January 30 date could prove worrisome:
When Congress failed to pass appropriations legislation for the 2026 fiscal year (FY) by September 30, 2025, what ensued was a record-setting 43-day closure of the U.S. government. November 12, 2025’s, Hail Mary Senate agreement funds the government at existing spending levels — but only until January 30, 2026. The bill that ended the shutdown contains a few appropriations to fund certain important functions beyond the January 30 deadline, SNAP programs and military payroll among them, but a renewed threat looms over a vast stretch of government activity if further progress is not made before the end of January.
- Gilbert Horowitz, Gambling911.com
