Odds on a U.S. Government Shutdown Before 2025
A quarter of the betting public believes there will be a government shutdown by year's end (2024).
House Rejects Temporary Funding Bill
The House on Wednesday rejected Speaker Mike Johnson’s proposal that would have linked temporary funding for the federal government with a mandate that states require proof of citizenship when people register to vote.
Lawmakers are not even close to completing work on the dozen annual appropriations bills that will fund federal agencies during the next fiscal year. A stopgap measure to prevent a partial shutdown when that budget year begins Oct. 1 will be required.
The vote was 220-202, with 14 Republicans and all but three Democrats opposing the bill. Johnson is expected to pursue a Plan B in order to avoid a partial shutdown. Details of such a plan were not immediately available.
“We’ll draw up another play and we’ll come up with a solution,” Johnson said. “I’m already talking to colleague about their many ideas. We have time to fix the situation and we’ll get right to it.”
How This Market Will Resolve
This market will resolve to "Yes" at Polymarket if the U.S government shut down occurs between August 30, and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The market will resolve to “Yes” if the acting President fails to sign the relevant bill(s) extending government funding by the applicable deadline(s), even if no government shutdown is explicitly announced.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" any shutdown will count. If only a portion of the US government is covered by any signed bill(s) extending funding of the US government, and a portion of the US government goes unfunded, this market will still resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution for this source will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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