Only Quarter of Prediction Market Traders See Permanent US-Iran Peace Deal By End of June

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Permanent peace deal between the U.S. and Iran prediction markets
  • Just a quarter of traders see a permanent peace deal between the U.S. and Iran by end of this month

  • More military strikes occurred Monday in Iran and Kuwait

  • Oil prices in a roller coaster ride as U.S. President Donald Trump says no more Israeli attacks in Lebanon

Tensions were once again heating up between the U.S. and Iran Tuesday as the United States said it had bombed military targets in Iran and the latter said it targeted American soldiers in Kuwait with missiles, which the U.S. says it shot down.

Just 26% of traders at Polymarket believed there would be a permanent peace deal in place between the two countries by the end of this month. 

Oil prices were on a roller coaster ride having sharply risen in the wake of Monday's escalation and then falling sharply Tuesday after U.S. President Donald Trump announced that he had brokered a halt to Israeli military action in Lebanon and that US-Iran negotiations were still on track.

Brent crude slipped 0.6 per cent to $94.45 a barrel, retracing some of Monday’s gains. West Texas Intermediate, the US crude benchmark, traded near $90.60 a barrel during Asian trading. 

Two tankers carrying oil products have exited the Strait of Hormuz over the past week while a liquefied natural gas (LNG) carrier has loaded cargo in the United Arab Emirates, shipping data ⁠show.

The fourth round of talks between Israel and Lebanon is underway in Washington, DC, where Lebanese negotiators hope to secure a halt to attacks on and occupation of the south.

Ongoing Israeli air attacks have killed at least eight people and wounded an unknown number of others in southern Lebanon.

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Permanent peace deal between the U.S. and Iran prediction markets

Only Quarter of Prediction Market Traders See Permanent US-Iran Peace Deal By End of June

Just a quarter of traders see a permanent peace deal between the U.S. and Iran by end of this month.