Powell Out as Fed Chair Before May? Just 12 Percent of Gamblers Think So

Written by :

t c jackson

Published on :

12 January, 2026

The Trump administration has threatened to indict Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell over congressional testimony he gave last summer about a Fed building project, But gamblers aren't buying that Powell is going anywhere prior to May of this year.

Just 12% of those trading on a Powell exit have him out by May at the prediction market Kalshi.

"On Friday, the Department of Justice served the Federal Reserve with grand jury subpoenas, threatening a criminal indictment related to my testimony before the Senate Banking Committee last June," Powell said in a statement on Sunday.

"I have deep respect for the rule of law and for accountability in our democracy. No one —certainly ⁠not the chair of the Federal Reserve — is above the law," Powell said in the brief statement released by ‍the Fed late on Sunday.

"But ⁠this unprecedented action should be seen in the broader context of the administration’s threats and ongoing pressure" for lower interest rates, he said.

Kalshi stipulates that, if Jerome Powell is no longer Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors (not merely announces he leaves office) by Apr 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.