Primary Betting Odds: Maine, New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina

The political primary season keeps rolling with key races in Maine, Nevada and South Carolina culminating Tuesday.

Maine odds were released last week as many are following the path of Graham Platner. Odds have flipped from favorable to non-favorable for a Janet Mills’ endorsement, but Platner’s chances of being elected in November have slightly improved since last week.

Platner has been dogged by political controversy, including sexually explicit text messages he reportedly sent to women while he was married and former girlfriends’ claims that he could be demeaning toward women. His background has made some Democrats anxious about their chance to flip the important seat. 

Nirav Shah has moved ahead of Troy Jackson and into the favorite position after having the second-best odds (+150) for the Maine Governor Democratic nominee last week. That said, the numbers still suggest this is basically a tossup. 

Nevada House of Representatives odds are fairly tight, and the numbers suggest Joe Lombardo will not be re-elected as the state’s governor.

South Carolina’s primaries show heavy favorites across the board.

Long time GOP Senator Lindsey Graham is surprisingly just a -600 favorite to be re-elected come November, all things considered. His margin of victory came in with an Over/Under of 22.5%.

Nevada-02: Democratic Primary

Teresa Benitez-Thompson -250

Matthew Fonken +185

Greg Kidd 33/1

Morgan Wadsworth 33/1

(Note: Odds imply a 71% probability Benitez-Thompson will win primary)

Nevada-02: Republican Primary

David Flippo -175

James Settelmeyer +135

(Note: Odds imply a 64% probability Flippo will win primary)

Will Joe Lombardo be re-elected as Nevada Governor?

Yes +100

No -140

(Note: Odds imply a 58% probability Lombardo won’t be re-elected)

Graham Platner Margin of Victory - June 9 Primary

Over/Under 50.5%

Will Janet Mills endorse Graham Platner for Senate?

Yes +110

No -150

(Note: Odds imply a 60% probability Mills won’t endorse Platner)

Will Graham Platner be elected to Senate in 2026?

Yes -150

No +110

(Note: Odds imply a 60% probability Platner will be elected)

Maine Governor - Democratic Primary

Nirav Shah -110

Troy Jackson +155

Hannah Pingree 4/1

Shenna Bellows 40/1

Angus King III 40/1

(Note: Odds imply a 52% probability Shah will win primary)

Maine Governor - Republican Primary

Robert Charles -1650

Jonathan Bush +650

Ben Midgley 20/1

(Note: Odds imply a 94% probability Charles will win primary)

Maine-02 - Democratic Primary

Joe Baldacci -375

Jordan Wood +350

Matthew Dunlap 9/1

Paige Loud 25/1

(Note: Odds imply a 79% probability Baldacci will win primary)

Will Lindsay Graham be elected to Senate in 2026?

Yes -600

No +350

(Note: Odds imply an 86% probability Graham will be elected)

Lindsay Graham Margin of Victory - June 9 Primary

Over/Under 22.5%

South Carolina Governor - Democratic Primary

Jermaine Johnson -1500

Billy Webster 6/1

Mullins McLeod 65/1

(Note: Odds imply a 94% probability Johnson will win primary)

South Carolina Governor - Republican Primary

Pamela Evette -800

Alan Wilson +550

Nancy Mace 18/1

Rom Reddy 33/1

Ralph Norman 33/1

(Note: Odds imply an 89% probability Evette will win primary)

South Carolina-01 - Democratic Primary

Nancy Lacore -900

Mac Deford 5/1

Mayra Rivera-Vazquez 33/1

(Note: Odds imply a 90% probability Lacore will win primary)

South Carolina-01 - Republican Primary

Mark Smith -300

Jenny Costa Honeycutt 5/1

Alex Pelbath 7/1

Sam McCown 14/1

Jay Byars 25/1

(Note: Odds imply a 75% probability Smith will win primary)