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Red Hot U.S. Senate Races Show Some Tight Odds... But Mostly Big Wins for Republicans

Written by:
Gilbert Horowitz
Published on:
Nov/01/2022

Pundits and poll watchers have Ohio in a practical dead heat when it comes to the Senate race there, yet oddsmakers see things a little differently.

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Case in point, JD Vance (R) remains the -800 favorite to beat his Democratic opponent Tim Ryan.  The later pays out $42.50 for every $10 bet.  56.0% of the money to date has come in on Vance.

It's true Vance is up as much as two points in polls released this week, among them Marist College and Siena College.  That's still well within the margin of error.

The Democratic party hasn't devoted much time, effort or money to the Ohio Senate race.  Perhaps they are following the odds at BetOnline.

"National Democrats have been known not to make very good strategic decisions over the years," Ryan said in an interview with the Washington Post. "There's a frustration among the rank-and-file Democrats that the leadership doesn't quite understand where we want this party to be."

Elsewhere, North Carolina is said to be tight.  Yet the odds here have incumbent GOP candidate at -1500 favorite to be re-elected.  That's considered an absolute "lock" in any other wagering category.

By the time Election Day arrives next week, there will be millions wagered globally on the midterm results.  Much of that handle will come from U.S.-based bettors.

There are tight races that the oddsmakers agree with.  PA and Georgia come to mind.

On Tuesday, another woman accusing staunch pro-life GOP Georgia Senate candidate Herschel Walker of pressuring her into having abortion, has now appeared publicly.  That may no longer matter as the state is already seeing record early voting.

If there were odds on whether this race will be decided by 11:59 pm Tuesday, they'd probably be set at -5000 on the NO.

Gamblers expecting to get paid for the Georgia Senate race will likely have to wait weeks.  A runoff is widely anticipated as neither candidate is likely to reach above the 50% threshold.  There is a Libertarian on the ticket.

Gambling911.com considers Democrat Raphael Warnock a virtual "lock", especially with a Libertarian candidate as an alternative choice to Republicans who just can't bring themselves to vote for Warnock (or Walker).

But there are greater minds than ours when it comes to the political betting sphere.

Paul Krishnamurty, a political betting analyst for BetOnline with over 30 years experience, continues to cruch the numbers all week long leading up to Tuesday's big day.  Consider him the John King or Steve Kornacki of political betting.  Here are the breakdowns, courtesy of Mr. Krishnamurty.

U.S. Senate Races

 

North Carolina - Senate

Ted Budd (R) -1500

Cheri Beasley (D) +600

50.8% of the $ on Budd

* Budd Opened -700 / High -1500 / Low -275

 

Georgia - Senate

Herschel Walker (R) -155

Raphael Warnock (D) +115

58.9% of the $ on Walker

* Walker Opened -210 / High -210 / Low +170

 

Ohio - Senate

JD Vance (R) -800

Tim Ryan (D) +425

56.0% of the $ on Vance

* Vance Opened -1000 / High -1000 / Low -275

 

Pennsylvania - Senate

John Fetterman (D) +150

Mehmet Oz (R) -200

99.5% of the $ on Oz

* Oz Opened -120 / High -275 / Low +350

 

Nevada - Senate

Catherine Cortez Masto (D) +200

Adam Laxalt (R) -300

61.6% of the $ on Laxalt

* Laxalt Opened -140 / High -300 / Low +110

 

Colorado - Senate

Michael Bennet (D) -1250

Joe O'Dea (R) +575

53.6% of the $ on Bennet

* Bennet Opened -700 / High -1250 / Low -700

 

Iowa - Senate

Chuch Grassley (R) -2500

Michael Franken (D) +800

100% of the $ on Franken

* Grassley Opened -5000 / High -5000 / Low -2000

 

Arizona - Senate

Mark Kelly (D) -140

Blake Masters (R) +100

59.9% of the $ on Masters

*Kelly Opened -180 / High -300 / Low -110

 

Wisconsin - Senate

Ron Johnson (R) -1000

Mandela Barnes (D) +550

52.5% of the $ on Johnson

* Johnson Opened -120 / High -1000 / Low +100

 

Florida - Senate

Marco Rubio (R) -4000

Val Demings (D) +1000

96.7% of the $ on Demings

* Rubio Opened -1500 / High -4000 / Low -1500

 

New Hampshire - Senate

Maggie Hassan (D) -300

Donald Bolduc (R) +200

60.5% of the $ on Bolduc

* Hassan Opened -600 / High -600 / Low -230

 

Utah - Senate

Mike Lee (R) -1500

Evan McMullin (D) +600

64.7% of the $ on McMullin

* Lee Opened -2000 / High -2000 / Low -1500

 

U.S. Governor Races

 

Georgia - Governor

Brian Kemp (R) -2500

Stacey Abrams (D) +800

53.7% of the $ on Abrams

* Kemp Opened -500 / High -2500 / Low -500

 

Kansas - Governor

Derek Schmidt (R) -120

Laura Kelly (D) -120

56.6% of the $ on Schmidt

* Schmidt Opened -400 / High -400 / Low -110

 

Maine - Governor

Janet Mills (D) -500

Paul LePage (R) +300

59.3% of the $ on LePage

* Mills Opened -400 / High -500 / Low -400

 

Texas - Governor

Greg Abbott (R) -4000

Beto O'Rourke (D) +1000

63.3% of the $ on O'Rourke

* Abbott Opened -900 / High -4000 / Low -700

 

New York - Governor

Kathy Hochul (D) -500

Lee Zeldin (R) +300

61.5% of the $ on Zeldin

* Hochul Opened -4000 / High -4000 / Low -300

 

Nevada - Governor

Steve Sisolak (D) +200

Joe Lombardo (R) -300

61.4% of the $ on Lombardo

* Lombardo Opened +100 / High -300 / Low +110

 

Pennsylvania - Governor

Doug Mastriano (R) +400

Josh Shapiro (D) -700

54.3% of the $ on Mastriano

* Shapiro Opened -400 / High -800 / Low -350

 

Arizona - Governor

Kari Lake (R) -800

Katie Hobbs (D) +425

71.9% of the $ on Lake

* Lake Opened +125 / High -800 / Low +125

 

Michigan - Governor

Gretchen Whitmer (D) -400

Tudor Dixon (R) +225

68.0% of the $ on Dixon

* Whitmer Opened -850 / High -850 / Low -200

 

Wisconsin - Governor

Tony Evers (D) +160

Tim Michels (R) -225

57.0% of the $ on Michels

* Michels Opened +140 / High -275 / Low +140

 

Florida - Governor

Ron DeSantis (R) -5000

Charlie Crist (D) +1200

52.5% of the $ on Crist

* DeSantis Opened -1250 / High -5000 / Low -1250

 

Ohio - Governor

Mike DeWine (R) -5000

Nan Whaley (D) +1200

93.5% of the $ on Whaley

* DeWine Opened -3500 / High -5000 / Low -3500

 

Minnesota - Governor

Tim Walz (D) -325

Scott Jensen (R) +215

57.0% of the $ on Jensen

* Walz Opened -1000 / High -1000 / Low -275

 

New Mexico - Governor

Michelle Grisham (D) -400

Mark Ronchetti (R) +250

74.4% of the $ on Ronchetti

* Grisham Opened -450 / High -600 / Low -275

- Gilbert Horowitz, Gambling911.com

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