An Early Look at Trump-Harris Debate Betting Options

The September 10 debate between Democratic nominee and current vice president Kamala Harris and the Republican nominee and former president Donald Trump is expected to bring in enormous viewership ratings.

BetOnline, in addition to offering numerous prop bets, will be offering odds on the Over/Under number of viewers.

A copy of the rules was provided to the Associated Press on Thursday by a senior Trump campaign official on condition of anonymity ahead of the network’s announcement. The Harris campaign on Thursday insisted it was still discussing the muting of mics with ABC.

The parameters now in place for the Sept. 10 debate are essentially the same as they were for the June debate between Trump and President Joe Biden, a disastrous performance for the incumbent Democrat that fueled his exit from the campaign.

Pre-Betting Debate Prop Bets

The entertainment betting site Manifold has released early prop bets for the upcoming debate between Harris and Trump.  Those in the U.S. cannot place real money bets with Manifold at this time.

12%
Harris says "unburdened"
7%
Harris says "unburdened by what has been"
18%
Trump says Laughing Kamala
81%
Harris mentions Trump's age
7%
Trump says "unburdened"
93%
Trump says "Kamala" more than "Harris" (tie resolves 50%)
27%
Polling after suggests Trump won (538, 50% if tie)
11%
Coconuts mentioned
4%
Debate has a live audience
76%
Harris mentions her history/work of prosecuting sexual offenders
89%
Trump interrupts or talks over Kamala during her time to speak
88%
Kamala interrupts or talks over Trump during his time to speak
69%
Moderators mute Trump's mic once while he's talking
40%
Moderators mute Kamala's mic once while she's talking
27%
Trump says bitcoin
52%
Harris is the first to bring up abortion (including moderators)
36%
Harris says "the context"
42%
Someone says "racist"
27%
Someone says "misogynist"
39%
Trump says "green new deal"
30%
Harris mentions record oil production under biden
91%
Harris mentions trump's convictions or that trump's a criminal
66%
Harris mentions sexual assault accusations / related civil judgements against trump
86%
Trump says "radical left[ist/...]"
47%
Harris laughs for more than two seconds continuously
11%
Harris laughs for more than five seconds continuously
76%
Trump's mic is muted more times than Harris's (0 n/a, tie 50/50)
53%
Trump uses two or more distinct nicknames for Kamala
25%
Trump uses three or more distinct nicknames for Kamala
9%
Trump uses four or more distinct nicknames for Kamala
69%
Trump says "Obama" (barak doesn't count) (includes obamacare)
56%
Harris has a notable gaffe
17%
Harris has a notable gaffe that dominates coverage of the debate
21%
Trump claims/suggests harris isn't black
25%
Trump claims/suggests harris isn't eligible to be president
21%
Trump and Harris shake hands
8%
A candidate says the word "ChatGPT"
70%
Harris calls Trump a "Felon" or a "Convicted criminal", exact words
69%
Trump says "border czar"
34%
Trump gives someone a new nickname he's never used before
42%
Nate Silver's poll average moves 1 point or more towards Trump a week after debate
47%
Nate Silver's poll average moves 1 point or more towards Harris a week after debate
59%
Trump states or hints that he would not concede if he loses the election
56%
Either candidate says “AI” or “Artificial Intelligence”
15%
Either candidate says ChatGPT or GPT
64%
The moderator threatens to mute a mic (or gives a warning of muting)
25%
Someone talks about Cryptocurrency
50%
Either candidate says the word “woke” OR the phrase “critical race theory”
21%
Harris and Trump talk over each other for more than five seconds continuously
5%
Harris and Trump talk over each other for more than thirty seconds continuously
20%
Harris says white supremacy or white supremacists
94%
Trump mentions Biden
89%
Trump mentions Biden two or more times
65%
Trump mentions Biden five or more times
95%
china mentioned
16%
space exploration mentioned
42%
Trump says weird
63%
Harris says weird
28%
Trump wins debate (YES=Trump wins,NO=Harris wins, based on manifold poll)
18%
Trump says "Kamabla"
82%
Trump says "Harris"
10%
Someone says "Jimmy Carter"
55%
Harris speaks before Trump (is given first speaking turn by moderators, or speaks first if both first invited to speak at the same time)
12%
Hannibal Lecter mentioned (just first or last name ok)
5%
Trump leaves before the debate ends
14%
Kamala says "antisemitism"
39%
Kamala tells a short story about a migrant
1%
RFK Jr. attempts to storm the stage
15%
Trump mentions Al Capone, Hannibal Lecter, sharks, a helicopter, or a couch
55%
Kamala says “I’m speaking”
12%
Trump says "Freakish"
40%
Trump will call Harris “nasty”
38%
Either candidate says “Palestine”
85%
Harris calls out Trump for killing the bipartisan immigration law
16%
Anyone (caught on official audio) says "clean coal"
69%
Trump says ‘worst vice president in history’
17%
Trump will lie over 100 times [creator note: resolution is best effort, won't be precise, be warned]]
71%
Trump says “winning”
19%
Trump mentions the audience size for any space he has participated on X
45%
Trump mentions crowd size at a rally (his or Harris')
12%
Alex / George Soros are mentioned
81%
Either candidate says the (exact) words "coup", "January 6" , or "January 6th"
32%
Trump mentions cryptocurrency
80%
Harris says "we are not going back"
24%
Trump says "we are going back"
20%
Trump insults or says something negative about the city of Philadelphia
15%
Trump refers to someone as "the late great" or "great late"
16%
Anyone mentions "Kensington" or "Allegheny Station" or "open air drug market"
98.3%
Trump lies at least one time [resolution will be best effort and imperfect]
34%
Trump says "billions and billions"
26%
Anyone directly quotes a corporate slogan (ala "Where's the Beef?")
3%
Either candidate says the name of a Lovecraftian deity/great old one
20%
Trump directly mentions an item on the McDonalds menu by name
82%
Harris mentions JD Vance or Trump mentions Tim Walz
38%
Trump says Comrade Kamala
14%
Trump states he is in a different location than where he actually is
47%
Trump is asked about his comments on the Medal of Honor
30%
Trump calls Harris "stupid" or "dumb"
83%
Someone says “tariff” or “tariffs”
1.4%
At least one candidate breaks out into a rap and/or song
75%
Trump complains about being treated unfairly or unkindly
91%
Harris lies at least one time [resolution will be best effort and imperfect]
37%
Trump wins debate, as judged by jackson polack (resolves yes if jackson judges trump is closer to winning than harris)
84%
Harris wins debate, according to Claude 3.5 Sonnet, when asked who won with no other prompt after NY Times transcript pasted in
66%
Trump references Democratic primaries
33%
Obama mentioned by one but not the other
72%
Trump calls Harris a “Communist” or “Comrade” or “Marxist” or something similar
12%
Anybody says "Bell Riots", "Bell Riot", "Star Trek", "Deep Space 9", "DS9", "widespread civil unrest", OR "Past Tense"
45%
First question to a candidate is in reference to a specific recent (with in the last two weeks) event
11%
Anyone says “dude”
65%
Either candidate has an involuntary bodily function (cough, sneeze, burp, vomit, etc) while mic'd up or visible on camera
89%
Someone says “the border”!
30%
Trump says McDonald's
94%
Ukraine mentioned
1%
“Rationalussy” mentioned