Trump Sentenced to Prison Before Election Day Betting Odds Set at +456

The odds of former U.S. President Donald Trump serving any prison time prior to the November 2024 elections is quite low following his conviction in a Manhattan courtroom Thursday.

The betting markets have him at +456 (18% chance) of serving prison.

BetOnline was currently updating its odds on this happening, but they will still have him favored as not being put behind bars.

Trump’s conviction on 34 felony counts marks the end of the former president’s historic hush money trial, but the fight over the case is far from over.  This also marks the first time ever that an American president has been convicted of a crime.

Sentencing is scheduled for July 11.

Former federal prosecutor Chuck Rosenberg, an NBC News analyst, said it's unlikely that Judge Juan Merchan would sentence Trump, 77, to any jail time, given his age and his status as a first-time, nonviolent offender. "I’d be very surprised if there's any sentence of incarceration at all," Rosenberg said. “Of course, he did spend a good bit of time insulting the judge who has the authority to incarcerate him.”

An analysis conducted by Norm Eisen, who worked for House Democrats during Trump’s first impeachment, found that roughly 1 in 10 people who have been convicted of falsifying business records are imprisoned and that those cases typically involved other crimes, according to NBC News.

Ron Kuby, a veteran New York criminal defense lawyer, took a different view.

“Judge Merchan is known for being a harsh sentencer when it comes to white-collar crimes committed by people who have wealth and privilege and power,” he said.

Trump would still regularly have to report to a probation officer.

Trump is almost certain to file for appeal.

At Polymarket, this market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump is sentenced to any time in jail/prison for convictions in the hush money case "The State of New York vs. Donald Trump". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If no sentence is rendered before November 4, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution will be based on the initial sentencing rendered in this case, regardless of any subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence.

This market will resolve based on the first sentencing rendered in this case, regardless of later appeals, etc.