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Folks in Taiwan can breathe easy....assuming the betting markets are correct.
Will China Invade Taiwan Betting Market Heats Up
Polymarket asks if China will invade Taiwan in 2024 with the odds so far coming in at +669 or a 13% chance.
So far, over the course of six months, some $776,339 has been Wagered.
The market gained additional interest on Thursday after China announced it would begin ‘punishment’ military drills around Taiwan days after island swears in new leader.
As part of the drills, dozens of Chinese fighter jets carrying live ammunition conducted mock strikes against “high-value military targets” of the “enemy” alongside destroyers, frigates and missile speedboats, according to China’s state broadcaster CCTV.
The exercises pose the greatest test for newly elected Lai Ching-te.
China’s ruling Communist Party says Taiwan is part of its territory, despite never having controlled it, and has vowed to take the island, by force if necessary.
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Response
Taiwan’s Defense Ministry has condemned China’s drills as “irrational provocations and actions that undermine regional peace and stability.”
In a statement Thursday, the ministry said it had dispatched sea, air and ground forces in response to the drills.
“We stand by with firm will and restraint. We seek no conflicts, but we will not shy away from one. We have the confidence to safeguard our national security,” it said.
Taiwan’s presidential spokeswoman Karen Kuo said in a statement: “It is regrettable to see China threatening Taiwan’s democracy and freedom and regional peace and stability with unilateral military provocations.”
“In the face of external challenges and threats, we will continue to defend democracy and have the confidence and ability to protect national security,” Kuo added.
In a statement on Thursday, United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres said he was following developments in the Taiwan Strait closely, and urged all parties to “refrain from acts that could escalate tensions in the region.”
How This Betting Market Will Be Resolved
How the China invading Taiwan betting market will be resolved at Polymarket:
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Taiwan by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used
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