Will Trump Announce Military Actions Against Iran Betting Odds

US President Donald Trump is mulling over plans to attack Iran but the gambling public believes it won't happen. 

Just 25 percent of those participating in this betting market at Polymarket say the US will strike Iran by Friday. 

Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, rejected U.S. calls for surrender in the face of blistering Israeli strikes that have taken place over the past week and warned that any military involvement by the Americans would cause “irreparable damage” to them.

“Wise individuals who know Iran, its people, and its history never speak to this nation with the language of threats, because the Iranian nation is not one to surrender,” he said in the low-resolution video, his voice echoing. An Iranian diplomat had earlier warned that U.S. intervention would risk “all-out war.”

According to the Wall Street Journal, Trump told senior aides late Tuesday that he approved of attack plans for Iran, but was holding off to see if Tehran would abandon its nuclear program, people familiar with the deliberations said.

One option for Washington would be to provide the “bunker-buster” bombs believed necessary to significantly damage the Fordo nuclear fuel enrichment plant, built deeply into a mountain.  Israel is believed to be incapable of taking out this enrichment plant on its own. 

Such a bomb would have to be dropped from an American aircraft and would almost certainly require a US pilot. 

Note on Middle East Betting Markets Per Polymarket: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and Twitter could not.