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These are today's biggest stories and betting markets shaping the prediction market industry Wednesday July 29, 2026.
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Exclusive: Prediction Markets Get Their Own Media Company
Wednesday July 29, 2026 (9:08 am EDT)
A new media company called Eventual is launching in partnership with Polymarket to give the world's top prediction market traders a platform for news and analysis, Axios has reported exclusively. The startup, founded by former prediction market blogger turned podcast producer and writer Alex Keeney, has raised a modest seed round with participation from LightShed Ventures, Riverside Ventures, Juniper Ventures and BDG Media founder Bryan Goldberg, per Keeney. Polymarket, one of the world's largest prediction market companies, is Eventual's launch sponsor and exclusive data partner.
44 States Are Aligned on One Thing in Their Fight Against Prediction Markets
Wednesday July 29, 2026 (8:57 am EDT)
Attorneys general from 44 states sent a letter to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission arguing the agency doesn’t have authority to regulate sports-related event contracts. Sports-related event contracts on prediction markets have been the subject of a jurisdictional battle between the CFTC and states. The commission has sued nine states to defend what it sees as its exclusive right to regulate the platforms. The letter was sent as the CFTC’s public comment period for its first proposed rule on prediction market regulation ended on Monday night. (source: CNBC)
Hot New Steph Curry Next Team Market
Wednesday July 29, 2026 (8:57 am EDT)
The Stephen Curry's Next Team market was just released at the prediction market platforms with 84%, not surprisingly, having Curry remaining in Golden State. From there we have a wide disparity between the prediction markets and traditional sportsbook sites. Our friends at BetOnline have the Charlotte Hornets as the 2/3 favorites to land Curry should he leave Golden State. Prediction markets like Kalshi have Curry going to San Antonio (7%) and Miami (4%) before Charlotte.
Rocket Classic Winner Prediction Markets Biggest Trade Generator in Sports This Week
Wednesday July 29, 2026 (8:54 am EDT)
Cameron Young had the best chance of winning this week's Rocket Classic golf tournament at 7.6% at Kalshi. Chris Gotterup, Xander Schauffele, Jackson Koivun, Si Woo Kim were each coming in between 4% and 5%. The traditional sportsbook platforms featured the following odds:
Cameron Young
+950
Chris Gotterup
+1600
Xander Schauffele
+1600
Jackson Koivun
+2000
Si Woo Kim
+2000
Wyndham Clark
+2200
Minnesota’s First-in-the-Nation Law Banning Prediction Markets is Halted in Federal Court
Wednesday July 29, 2026 (8:51 am EDT)
A federal judge has temporarily blocked Minnesota’s first-in-the-nation law banning prediction markets just days before it was to take effect, the latest clash between President Donald Trump’s administration and states over who regulates operators such as Kalshi and Polymarket. Monday’s decision is the latest setback for states trying to outlaw or regulate fast-growing prediction market platforms. U.S. District Judge Katherine Menendez in Minnesota found that the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Kalshi and Polymarket were likely to succeed in their challenge to the law and that letting it take effect would cause “irreparable harm” to the operators. The law was scheduled to take effect Saturday. It would have made it a crime to create or operate prediction markets or help administer nearly any activity connected to one. The law will remain blocked while the lawsuit proceeds.
Fed Decision in July 2026?
Wednesday July 29, 2026 (8:51 am EDT)
Even with just a few days remaining in the month of July, the fed rate remaining the same was just a 74% chance, meaning a quarter of those trading at prediction markets still think there could be a change come week's end. $57 million has been traded thus far at Kalshi as of Wednesday morning as The Federal Open Market Committee convenes July 28–29, 2026, for its fifth scheduled meeting of the year, with the rate decision set for release at 2:00 PM ET on July 29, according to the Federal Reserve. The committee has held the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75% through multiple consecutive 2026 meetings, and this session carries no updated dot plot or Summary of Economic Projections.
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- Aaron Goldstein, Gambling911.com
