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Marlins Caleb Smith (3-0, 2.00 ERA) vs. Cubs LH Jon Lester (2-1, 1.73) explains the 6.5 stable total
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UNDER is 12-3 in Miami’s last 15 road games
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UNDER is 5-1 in Lester's last 6 home starts
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It's a low total of 6.5 but look at who the starters are.
Had this number moved at all from 6.5 to 7 we might consider the OVER. The number hasn't moved anywhere of the 6.5.
Miami is +147 and Chicago -157 but no way would we bet against Caleb Smith, especially at this price (nor would we jump all over Miami for that matter).
PITCHING MATCHUP: Marlins LH Caleb Smith (3-0, 2.00 ERA) vs. Cubs LH Jon Lester (2-1, 1.73)
Smith has been a bright spot in an otherwise dismal first quarter of the season for Miami, posting a 0.83 WHIP and limiting opponents to a .168 batting average while allowing more than two runs just once in his first six starts. The 27-year-old Texan, who has registered 45 strikeouts while issuing only nine walks in 36 innings, is coming off a victory over Cleveland on Wednesday in which he gave up one run and four hits over seven frames. Smith made his only career start against Chicago on March 30, 2018, yielding one run and four hits with eight strikeouts and three walks in 5 1/3 innings of a no-decision.
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Lester has put his hamstring injury behind him as he has allowed just one run and five hits over 12 innings in two starts since being activated. The 35-year-old was superb while pitching in his native state of Washington on Wednesday, giving up one hit and one walk with eight strikeouts over seven scoreless frames in a victory over Seattle. Lester is 2-1 with one complete game and a 5.01 ERA in six career starts against the Marlins.
The UNDER is 12-3 in Miami’s last 15 road games.
The UNDER is 5-1 in Lester's last 6 home starts.
The OVER is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Chicago.
The OVER is 6-1 in Cubs last 7 overall.
2019 MLB Record: 8-5-1 (61.5%)
2018-19 College Basketball Record: 12-9 (57.1%)
2018-19 NBA Record: 7-4 (63.4%)
2018 MLB Record: 45-35 (56.2%)
2018 NBA Record: 12-4-1 (75%)
- Dan Shapiro, Gambling911.com
