MLB Betting Lines – Free Pick: Under is 9-3-1 in Cueto’s Last 13 Home Starts

Our second pick of the day will be on the UNDER 7 Nationals/Reds.

The Nationals LH Gio Gonzalez (6-5, 3.74 ERA) has been fantastic against Cincinnati in the past.  2-0 with a 1.00 ERA in four starts against the Reds, striking out 32 in 27 innings while allowing only one homer.

It would almost be tempting to bet on the Nationals at +107, however, the Reds RH Johnny Cueto (10-6, 2.18) is 5-3 with a 4.58 ERA in nine starts against Washington, is 5-2 with a 1.74 ERA in 10 day starts this season, and 7-3, 1.98 in 11 turns at home.

Both these pitchers are coming off of no-decisions also.

The last two games in this series have gone UNDER the current number while four of the last five have not gone OVER 7.   Only one of the last four in this series played this year have gone OVER 7.

The UNDER is 9-3-1 in Cueto's last 13 home starts.

The UNDER is 9-3-1 in Cueto's last 13 home starts while the UNDER is 5-1 in Gonzalez's last 6 road starts.

In theory, both these pitchers should be able to go 8 full innings and the final score will be 1-0, though theories do not always shape up the way we would like.

Here are some great trends for today.

Pitchers

The Cardinals Shelby Miller is 1-0 when starting against Cubs with an ERA of 0.00 and a WHIP of 0.800.

The Cubs is 1-0 when starting against the Cards with an ERA of 0.55 and a WHIP of 1.164.

Washington’s Gio Gonzalez is 2-0 with a 1.00 ERA in four starts against the Reds, striking out 32 in 27 innings while allowing only one homer.

Atlanta's Julio Teheran is 0-2 when starting against San Diego with an ERA of 6.39 and a WHIP of 1.026.

Jon Niese is 2-0 when starting against Milwaukee with an ERA of 4.63 and a WHIP of 1.575.

Wily Peralta is 2-0 when starting against the New York Mets with an ERA of 0.63 and a WHIP of 0.558.

The Dodgers Clayton Kershaw is 11-5 when starting against the Giants with an ERA of 1.49 and a WHIP of 0.828.

The Giants Ryan Vogelsong is 4-2 when starting against the Dodgers with an ERA of 3.15 and a WHIP of 1.325.

The Blue Jays Drew Hutchinson is 1-3 when starting against the Yankees with an ERA of 6.87 and a WHIP of 1.882.

The White Sox Chris Sale is 5-1 when starting against the Twins with an ERA of 2.75 and a WHIP of 1.017.

Teams
The OVER is 8-1 in the Cardinals/Cubs series this season.

Pittsburgh is 3-1 against Colorado this season.

The OVER is 7-3 in the Blue Jays/Yankees series this season.

- Dan Shapiro, Gambling911.com