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Sports Interaction betting analyst Frank Doyle wonders who's best placed to go from zero to hero iwhen it comes to betting on the 2009 - 2010 NFL season.
For the past couple of years in the NFL there's been a tendency for teams to come from nowhere to challenge for honours. Last year was a spectacular example of this, with Arizona getting to its first ever Super Bowl and the Miami Dolphins going from one win in 2007 to eleven wins and the AFC East title in 2008. The Packers were a surprise in 2007 and nobody expect the Bears and Saints to contest the NFC title in 2006.
So who's the best longshot prospect this year? Sports Interaction has odds on all the divisional titles and team total wins, so now is a good time to start making these sort of nest-egg bets, to give you a roll for the playoffs. And there are two prospects, in either conference, that are particular standouts.
This is the seventh year of the Houston Texans' existence and there's a feeling currently abroad that the Texans' time is now. The Texans finished strong last year but had the twin disadvantages of a poor start and a highly competitive division. This year, however, there are question marks over the other three teams in the AFC South and Houston has marquee players in Andre Johnson and Mario Williams, players that can make a difference when things are tight. Only a few plays might make the difference between a 10-6 season and 6-10.
Sports Interaction is quoting Houston at +4000 to win the Super Bowl, +1800 to win the AFC and +300, third favorite, to win the AFC South. If the Texans' progress graph has crossed with that of the Colts and Titans, then that +300 is a pretty good bet.
I have a sneaking feeling for the Chiefs to do something this year. They showed a lot of moxie at the end of the season last year, and +800 with Sports Interaction for the AFC West is a big price, chiefly because the Chargers are such hot favorites. It's not a great bet, but it's certainly a good price.
My favorite pre-season pick is for the glory years to return to San Francisco. Sports Interaction is quoting the 49ers at +6600 to win the Super Bowl, +3300 to win the NFC and +225 to win the NFC West. The NFC West title is certainly within their grasp - Mike Singletary made a clear difference when he took over as head coach during last season, and the NFC West looks weak this year.
Super Bowl losing teams generally have bad following years, which is bad news for the Cardinals, and Seattle and St Louis are on a down cycle right now. I like the Vikings to win the NFC this year - especially with their "new" quarterback - but my goodness, +3300 on San Francisco to get to the Super Bowl is a big, big price. Maybe a dollar, just in case.
Frank Doyle, Gambling911.com
