2009 NCAA Brackets: Mississippi State vs. Washington Upset?

Gambling911.com alluded to it earlier, the idea that Washington could be upset in the NCAA Tournament.

"This could be the 2009 NCAA Brackets buster," says Don Shapiro of Gambling911.com. 

Even better than a bracket buster is the fact that Mississippi State came in as the +5 underdog in this matchup at Super Book.

"You gotta love Mississippi State in this position," says Shapiro.  "In non-conference road games, Washington has just 1 win and 8 losses over the past three seasons."

Then there's this from the SportingNews:

"Washington is by far the most vulnerable of the 4 seeds. Washington is winning just 51.9 percent of simulations over SEC tournament champion Mississippi State. Washington is coming off a double-digit loss to Arizona State in the Pac-10 tournament. Besides momentum being in favor of Mississippis State, the big issue for Washington is offensive efficiency.

"Against other tournament teams, Washington shot 42.1 percent from the field and 31.4 percent from 3-point range, while opponents shot 43.0 percent overall and 34.3 percent from three.

"Washington committed more turnovers than their tournament team opponents. Washington won games thanks to a good edge in rebounding (plus-5.3 per game).

"For the season, Mississippi State was minus-4.5 rebounds per game against tournament teams. However, in the SEC tournament, Mississippi State outrebounded three of its four opponents by 15 total rebounds (nearly four per game). If the Mississippi State continues to rebound like it has the past few weeks, they could upset Washington."

Yeah, we think Mississippi State has a really strong chance of an upset.  Doesn't mean it will happen, but the trends and other stats suggest a better than 50 percent likelihood. 

On the money line, Mississippi State was listed at +175 for a $175 payout on every $100 bet at Super Book.  Might be worth a shot.

Tyrone Black, Gambling911.com