2009 Super Bowl Betting on Totals

Sports Interaction betting analyst Frank Doyle takes a look at the totals betting market for Super Bowl XLIII (2009 Super Bowl) and makes some interesting revelations for Gambling911.com readers.

Totals betting can be a fraught occupation. The canny bettor knows that the under is often the smart play, because the book has to decide on probable total, and then shade that upwards to allow for the fact that the public likes to play the over. The difference between the actual number and the number that is set by Sports Interaction is where the canny bettor makes his or her money with 2009 Super Bowl betting on totals.

There's only one problem with this tactic, and that is that every score that goes on the board is like a dagger through your heart. If you had the under in Super Bowl XLI, how did you feel when Devin Hester ran the opening kickoff back to the house? The Colts could deal because if you're going to give up a touchdown, best to do it when you still have fifty-nine minutes to make it back. But the under bettor was already under pressure while the final bars of the anthem still hung in the air.

Taking the under requires nerves of steel and the patience of a Jedi knight. But it can be worthwhile for those that can figure the numbers.

Sports Interaction has set the total for Super Bowl XLIII at 46.5. The average total for the forty-two Super Bowls played so far is 45.3, so this year's total certainly conforms to that pattern. The highest ever total was 75, when San Francisco laid waste to San Diego 49-26 in Super Bowl XXIX, while the lowest was 21, when Miami claimed its perfect season by beating Washington 14-7 in Super Bowl VII. That would only have been fourteen, actually, if Mike Bass hadn't run back a blocked Fins' kick for a touchdown in the final two minutes.

Pick sevens can really destroy a under bet in a football game. Super Bowl XXXVII ran to 69 total points, twenty-one from pick sevens for Tampa Bay. And that's the biggest danger for under players when Pittsburgh faces Arizona on Sunday week.

When looking at 2009 Super Bowl betting totals we must considere that Pittsburgh is the best defense in the league and defensive teams don't lead to big totals in games. Equally, the Steeler offense is old school, and they'll run happily between the tackles because that's the Steeler way. The danger is in someone like Troy Polamalu scooping up an errant pass or James Farrior taking a fumble to the house and clocking another seven onto the board that way. But the Steelers only beat Seattle 21-10 four years ago and, while I believe this Arizona team to be better than Seattle in Super Bowl XL, I think the under is the smart play here - but only for players who can hold their nerve. Under +46.5 points with Sports Interaction is the pick.

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Frank Doyle, Gambling911.com