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Last year a Chicago Bears vs. Atlanta Falcons matchup would have been filed under "For Sports Bettors Only" since few others (even hardcore fans of either team) would have been all that excited. What a difference a year makes. The Bears come into Week 6 with a 3-2 record, and that is good enough to lead the NFC North. Atlanta is also surprisingly 3-2 with the help of Matt Ryan as the new starting quarterback. Both teams have much to be proud of early on.
The Falcons get no respect though as they are +3 home underdogs in this one. Perhaps that's because Chicago has won 9 of the last 10 dating back to 1985. The Bears have also won 5 of the last 6 ATS, while not necessarily losing over that period as one of the six games was a push. Atlanta's only win over the 10 game period in this series came at home when Chicago was listed as a +12 underdog. In other words, it was a time when the two teams were at opposite sides of the spectrum.
There is another reason Chicago is favored here. Despite the similar 3-2 record, the Bears could easily be undefeated right about now. Their two losses were by 3 points each, one in overtime. The Bears have played solid teams. One of the losses was on the road against a very good Carolina team. They have beaten Indianapolis and Philadelphia. They spanked Detroit last week.
Atlanta, meanwhile, has been quite consistent. They win one, then they lose the next game by scoring a mere 9 points. That's an interesting trend! And since the Falcons won last week (in Green Bay no less), could there be another loss coming this Sunday?
The Bears are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall. They are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. NFC.
The Falcons are 5-17-1 ATS in their last 23 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. To break things down further, they are 1-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Sagarin calculations have the Bears able to win by only 2 points.
This one looks like it can fall on the number 3. BetOnline.com had the Bears at -2 ½ Friday night, one of the few online sports books offering this line. Most had them at -3.
We are gonna say Chicago covers the -2 ½ line. Atlanta hasn't quite convinced us yet that they can come out and win each week. This is a tough call but past history demands that we go with Chicago here. 85 percent of the betting public agrees.
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Christopher Costigan, Gambling911.com Publisher
