College Football Free Pick: Missouri vs. Nebraska
Our only College Football free pick this week is on Missouri vs. Nebraska. 94 percent of the early action was going Missouri's way.
Gambling911.com actually sees an overlay of about 10 points in this game based on the Sagarin Ratings, which has Missouri and Nebraska about equal on a neutral field. Nebraska, in fact, does have an edge in yards allowed, time of possession, punting and fumbles.
The Tigers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record and 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games overall - a strong stat in favor of Missouri. They are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game and 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games overall.
The Cornhuskers do offset the Tigers away stats as they are 18-3-1 ATS in their last 22 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. It should be noted that Nebraska is 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games overall and 2-7 ATS in their last 9 conference games.
We do believe that Nebraska should be able to cover that 11 point spread based on those recent 18-3-1 ATS home game stats vs. teams with a winning record and - even more so - the fact that home team has won 8 of the last 10 since 1998, and each of the last 6 games.
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Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com
