College Football Predictions - 2008 Week 4 Edition
Gambling911.com is proud to present its College Football Predictions for 2008 Week 4, analyses of line movements, which sides are getting the most betting action and any opinion the bookmakers might have.
LSU vs. Auburn - A game getting significant betting action coming into this weekend. Different books were on different sides of this game so some might get hit harder than others depending on the outcome. Nearly 80 percent of the action was on LSU at some outfits and others had around 80 percent going Auburn's way. LSU was a -2 road favorite at SBG Global. An analysis of this game line by Gambling911.com shows that this game played in Auburn makes both teams nearly dead even with LSU perhaps having only a one point edge. Hence, an Auburn cover as the small underdog looks especially likely. These two teams tend to play very close games in recent times and they have been alternating wins, with LSU having won by a much larger margin of 6 points the last time they both met.
Temple vs. Penn State - Gambling911.com won't even try to set odds on such a lopsided matchup but we can say that overwhelmingly 95 percent of the action is going Penn State's way. The line opened at Temple +30 so the trend is for the odds to keep moving downward in an effort to get more wagers on the favorites here. We do not see the odds makers going below -26 ½ here as it seems the line is shaded above -25. But once again, these mismatches in College Football present some difficulties in determining a "true" line. Temple has a better than 55 percent chance of covering here as the huge underdog if you MUST bet on this very inflated line. (correction: Penn State is the favorite in this game. Gambling911.com had erroneously placed a minus [-] sign in front of Temple earlier)
Georgia vs. Arizona State - One of the most bet on games early in the week, the Georgia Bulldogs vs. Arizona State Sun Devils odds opened at Georgia -6 ½ as the away favorite and the line has since settled in at -7 across the board. The oppressive heat could be a factor. It will be 99 degrees today, maybe hotter. Gambling911.com believes the line in this game should be Georgia Bulldogs -9 and the odds makers overall are relatively close in their assessment of this line, off by a mere 2 points, which we think will allow for a Georgia cover as the favorite. To reinforce this point, Georgia has won 9 of their last 10 games by a score of 7 or more. 93 percent of the betting public was on the Bulldogs at -7 early on and that number has now settled in around 80 percent. The books would need an Arizona State cover here.
Florida vs. Tennessee University - The highest line we have seen is -8 and it's interesting that Gambling911.com believes the line should be Florida -8 ½. We believe there is a better than 50 percent chance that Florida will cover the spread as the favorite with a 9 point win over Tennessee University. The action is leaning more towards Florida around 75 percent so the books will be hopeful for a Tennessee cover.
East Carolina vs. North Carolina State - This was the 4th most bet on game at many books as of Saturday morning. East Carolina has been the upset story of the season thus far. This noon showdown has East Carolina as the -7 road favorite. 75 percent of the action was coming East Carolina's way. We have a line that should be East Carolina -11 ½, so in theory this should be an easy cover for the road favorite East Carolina.
Alabama vs. Arkansas - This 12:30 pm EST game has Alabama as a -9 ½ road favorite and is getting close to 75 percent of the betting action here. The line here should be closer to Alabama -8. The line has not moved under -8 ½. This tells us that Arkansas should cover as the underdog here and we wouldn't be surprised if they cover just by 8 points.
Iowa vs. Pittsburgh U - Pittsburgh is the -1 favorite at SBG Global. Iowa has been getting around 60/40 action vs. Pittsburgh U. Huge underlay from what we can see as Iowa is a much better team and the line actually should be closer to Iowa -7 but large discrepancies like this scare us so we can't really offer an opinion here. Typically, the team that is not supposed to win in these situations DOES. Many times huge underlays are a result of variables not yet factored into the line such as injuries or suspensions or even locker room disenchantment.
Notre Dame vs. Michigan State - Notre Dame stunned Michigan University last week. This 3:30 pm EST game has Michigan State as the -9 favorite and once again Notre Dame is the big underdog looking for an upset. Gambling911.com has Notre Dame as the better team here and, in fact, Notre Dame should be a mere +2 underdog. Notre Dame should easily cover in this one.
Gambling911.com was correct in its forecast of a Louisville win (right on the money in fact with the score outcome). We were not correct with West Virginia vs. Colorado.
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Christopher Costigan, Gambling911.com Publisher
