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This is not a one horse race. I Want Revenge was initially installed as the favorite to win the 2009 Kentucky Derby. But not so fast. While I Want Revenge continues to hold on to "favorite" status pretty much across the board with +300 odds (3/1) at online gambling establishments such as betED.com, Dunkirk is not far from behind, with payout odds of +450 and a potential profit of $450 for every $100 bet.
Dunkirk is talented but still largely untested. Also of concern, shin problems. They kept Dunkirk off the track as a 2-year-old.
Pletcher never panicked, knowing his horse just needed time to get through some growing pains. After a couple of impressive races against lesser competition, Dunkirk ran a strong second to Quality Road in the Florida Derby on March 28.
The race validated Pletcher's patience, but it still took a number of defections, including Quality Road, to get Dunkirk in the Derby.
"In Dunkirk's situation we were flying underneath the radar from a public standpoint but within the organization we felt like we had something special we could come here with," he said. "Obviously we're up against a lot of history and you have to respect that, but I feel like for a horse that's lightly raced that he's had a lot thrown at him."
Newsday made this prediction of Dunkirk:
"Long, lean gray colt has the most upside of any horse in the field. His profile looks a lot like Curlin's did two years ago, but even racing's all-time leading money-winner couldn't win the Derby after not racing as a 2-year-old. No horse has done that since 1882, but like Dunkirk, Big Brown (last year) had only three pre-Derby starts. Has the numbers and finishing kick to shatter another Derby rule and end trainer Todd Pletcher's 0-for-21 Derby schneid; major threat."
For now, I Want Revenge remains the small favorite with some of the best payout odds of a Kentucky Derby horse in this position.
Newsdays writes of I Want Revenge:
"IEAH Stables, hoping for back-to-back Derby wins, bought 50 percent of this colt after he won the Gotham in his dirt debut. His trouble-filled Wood Memorial was visually spectacular, but the competition was very weak. Looms an underlay off his last-to-first Wood after losing four lengths at the start. He's a serious contender who won't offer much betting value."
"Due to the stiff competition in this year's Kentucky Derby we could see I Want Revenge getting longer odds at some online gambling sites," says Don Shapiro of Gambling911.com.
As of Thursday afternoon, few books had I Want Revenge with longer odds than +300 (3/1). A few even had I Want Revenge With shorter odds.
Dunkirk has seen slightly longer odds at some books than the +400 found across the board. betED.com had Dunkirk with +425 odds for a payout potential of $425 for every $100 bet.
Christopher Costigan, Gambling911.com Publisher
