EAST CAROLINA PIRATES (4-6) at UCF KNIGHTS (0-10)
Slumping East Carolina tries to keep its bowl hopes alive when it visits winless UCF on Thursday night.
EAST CAROLINA PIRATES (4-6) at UCF KNIGHTS (0-10)
Sportsbook.ag Line: East Carolina -14, Total: 53.5
The Pirates (4-6 SU and ATS) have been unable to generate much offense during a current three-game losing skid where they have scored only 14.7 PPG. This includes a 22-17 home setback to 5-point underdog South Florida in their last game on Nov. 7. The Knights (0-10 SU, 2-8 ATS) finally got their offense in gear with 30 points in their most recent game on Nov. 7, but allowed Tulsa to hang 45 points in that defeat.
Although East Carolina holds a commanding 8-4 SU advantage in this series since 1992, UCF is 6-3 ATS during this span, with two consecutive head-to-head victories. After destroying the Pirates 40-20 at home in 2012, and the teams not meeting in 2013, the Knights picked up a 32-30 upset road win last year.
There are reasons to wager on either side for this matchup, as ECU falls in the category of college football road teams going 52-24 ATS (68%) after being beaten by the spread by 35+ points in their previous three games facing an opponent going over the total by 28+ points in their previous three contests. But UCF is 20-8 ATS at home after playing a game where 60+ points were scored since 1992, and its Thursday opponent is 0-9 ATS versus bad passing defenses (allowing 58% completion pct. or worse) over the past two seasons.
East Carolina's offense has averaged a respectable 26.9 PPG on 398 total YPG this season, but has generated just 14.7 PPG on 313 total YPG (4.4 yards per play) during its three-game losing skid. The unit has been on the field for an average of only 28:05 per game with a mediocre ground game (140 YPG on 4.0 YPC) and above-average passing attack (258 YPG on 7.0 YPA).
Junior QB Blake Kemp has completed 70% of his throws for 1,878 yards, but has just 11 TD and 10 INT this year and was benched two games ago at UConn when he tossed three picks.
Junior QB James Summers got the start last week versus South Florida and threw for only 158 yards on 14-of-22 attempts with 0 TD and 0 INT, but he also rushed for a pair of scores, giving him a team-high eight rushing touchdowns for the year. Summers was not on the same page with top WR Isaiah Jones (794 rec yds, 3 TD) last week with Jones catching only two passes for eight yards.
To keep the Knights honest, top RB Chris Hairston (615 rush yds, 4.3 YPC, 7 TD) will need to bounce back from a horrendous 13-carry, 24-yard output last game.
The ECU defense has allowed 28.6 PPG on 415 total YPG this season, including 35.0 PPG on the road. The defense has been generous to both opposing ball carriers (184 YPG on 4.1 YPC) and opposing quarterbacks (232 YPG on 7.8 YPA) and has generated a meager eight turnovers during the past eight games combined. However, the Pirates will be facing one of the most mistake-heavy teams in the nation on Thursday night.
UCF has given the ball away at least two times in eight of 10 games this year, totaling 28 turnovers for the season. The mistakes are a huge reason why the offense has possessed the football for an average of only 27:41, leading to a paltry 15.7 PPG and 279 total YPG. The ground game has been particularly awful with 78 YPG on 2.6 YPC, but the air attack has gained 200 YPG on a low 5.5 YPA and 52% completion rate.
Junior QB Justin Holman has thrown for only 6 TD with 11 INT this year, but he is coming off a season-high 293 passing yards where he tossed two touchdowns and also two picks. The star of that game was freshman WR Tre'Quan Smith who caught seven passes for a career-high 131 yards and a touchdown.
The leading rusher for the Knights is freshman RB C.J. Jones who has a modest 291 yards on 3.8 YPC and 1 TD for the year. After an impressive 123 rushing yards at Cincinnati, Jones was held to 17 yards on 11 carries (1.5 YPC) last week.
The UCF defense has been shredded both on the ground (196 YPG on 4.8 YPC) and through the air (253 YPG on 9.0 YPA) leading to 36.4 PPG on 449 total YPG allowed (6.5 yards per play) for the season. In the past three contests, those numbers have ballooned to 52.0 PPG and 584 total YPG (8.2 yards per play). But the unit did force four turnovers last game and East Carolina has been sloppy away from home with 14 giveaways over five road contests.
