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Today is the big day - August 5, 2023. Jake Paul vs. Nate Diaz is expected to be the biggest fight of the year so far, even bigger than last week's Errol Spence vs. Terence Cawford. That one resulted the highest trafficked day for Gambling911 since August 2017 and, while the traffic entering this weekend's fight the days leading up was much lower compared to last week, an hourly uptick was noticed this Saturday morning.
73% of early bets are on Diaz to win tonight. Diaz is making his professional boxing debut and has 5 wins by KO/TKO throughout his 19-year MMA career.
On the other hand, Jake Paul is the-400 favorite and is 6-1 in boxing and is coming off a decision loss to Tommy Fury. The Total is set at 8.5 rounds. Diaz pays out $300 for every $100 with a win. The odds equate to an 80% implied probability that Paul will defeat Diaz.
A press conference on Thursday got completely out of hand, which will add to the excitement coming into this one perhaps.
Currently, the sportsbook is reporting that 77.4% of the moneyline handle is on Paul. Under 8.5 rounds is being backed at 56.1%.
Below are the rest of the odds and props for Diaz vs. Paul. If you are able to use this information, please consider citing the source.
Will the fight go the distance?
Yes +160
No -200
Jake Paul Knockdowns
Jake Paul does not get knocked down -350
Jake Paul gets knocked down +275
Nate Diaz Knockdowns
Nate Diaz gets knocked down -165
Nate Diaz does not get knocked down +135
Both Fighter Knockdowns
Both boxers do not get knocked down -750
Both boxers get knocked down +475
Either Fighter Knockdowns
Either boxer to get knocked down -230
No Knockdowns +190
Exact Method of Victory
Paul, Jake to win by TKO +125
Paul, Jake to win by KO +200
Paul, Jake to win by Unanimous Decision +475
Diaz, Nate to win by TKO +650
Paul, Jake to win by Split Decision +1100
Diaz, Nate to win by KO +1200
Diaz, Nate to win by Unanimous Decision +1200
Diaz, Nate to win by Split Decision +1800
Paul, Jake to win by Majority Decision +2200
Paul, Jake to win by DQ +2500
Diaz, Nate to win by DQ +4000
Diaz, Nate to win by Majority Decision +4000
Method of Victory
Paul, Jake by KO, TKO or DQ -160
Paul, Jake by Decision or Technical Decision +275
Diaz, Nate by KO, TKO or DQ +650
Diaz, Nate by Decision or Technical Decision +700
Draw or Technical Draw +1400
Exact Outcome
KO -115
TKO +175
Unanimous Decision +425
Split Decision +850
Majority Decision +1400
DQ +2000
Jake Paul - Round Betting
Paul, Jake by KO/TKO/DQ Round 5 +1000
Paul, Jake by KO/TKO/DQ Round 6 +1000
Paul, Jake by KO/TKO/DQ Round 4 +1100
Paul, Jake by KO/TKO/DQ Round 7 +1100
Paul, Jake by KO/TKO/DQ Round 3 +1200
Paul, Jake by KO/TKO/DQ Round 8 +1200
Paul, Jake by KO/TKO/DQ Round 2 +1400
Paul, Jake by KO/TKO/DQ Round 9 +1400
Paul, Jake by KO/TKO/DQ Round 1 +1600
Paul, Jake by KO/TKO/DQ Round 10 +1600
Nate Diaz - Round Betting
Diaz, Nate by KO/TKO/DQ Round 4 +3300
Diaz, Nate by KO/TKO/DQ Round 5 +3300
Diaz, Nate by KO/TKO/DQ Round 6 +3300
Diaz, Nate by KO/TKO/DQ Round 7 +3300
Diaz, Nate by KO/TKO/DQ Round 8 +3300
Diaz, Nate by KO/TKO/DQ Round 3 +3500
Diaz, Nate by KO/TKO/DQ Round 9 +3500
Diaz, Nate by KO/TKO/DQ Round 10 +4000
Diaz, Nate by KO/TKO/DQ Round 2 +4000
Diaz, Nate by KO/TKO/DQ Round 1 +5000
Round Group Betting
Paul, Jake by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 5 to 6 +450
Paul, Jake by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 3 to 4 +525
Paul, Jake by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 7 to 8 +525
Paul, Jake by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 1 to 2 +700
Paul, Jake by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 9 to 10 +700
Diaz, Nate by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 5 to 6 +2000
Diaz, Nate by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 7 to 8 +2000
Diaz, Nate by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 3 to 4 +2200
Diaz, Nate by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 9 to 10 +2200
Diaz, Nate by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 1 to 2 +3000
- Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com
