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Across the board, LSU vs. Florida betting odds opened around -6 in favor of Florida and they haven't moved beyond a half point (some books had Florida -6 ½). Sportsbook.com has maintained the line at -6 as of Friday afternoon.
Here we have yet another great game with two Top 10 ranked teams. Sagarin has Florida able to win by 5 points and the odds makers seem to be offering a line based on that calculation. LSU would just barely cover under this scenario.
The home team has won the last three in this series. Florida has covered each of them.
LSU has won their last 6 games by no less than 5 points. Their one loss in the last 10 games was 2 points in overtime. And while Florida lost to Mississippi this year by one point, their four other games were huge double digit wins.
The Tigers are 17-8-2 ATS in their last 27 road games while the Gators are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games.
If the Gators lose, they will have a tough time getting back to the title game.
"They don't have any weaknesses," Coach Les Miles said of the Gators. "They're nationally ranked at No. 11, which is probably underselling them some. I think they're as talented a football team as I've seen."
LSU's defense is giving up only about 261 yards a game total and is holding foes to only 69 yards a game on the ground.
Florida coach Urban Meyer is counting on the fans to help his team walk away with a victory.
"There is no question with the (LSU home) game two years ago and the FSU game last year; the fans had a big factor on the game," Meyer said. "LSU has a first-time starter coming in here and we all know the issues with communications during a big game. It's great to be playing at home."
Florida has not been able to put up the same dynamic numbers it did a season ago. The Gators are averaging 36 points per game, down from the 42.5 points per game they averaged last season.
While the spread action is relatively even on this game with 60 percent going the Tigers way, nearly 90 percent of the money line action is on LSU to win outright for payout odds of 2 to 1.
LSU does look as if they can cover the +6 ½ as we believe this will be a closer game.
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Christopher Costigan, Gambling911.com
