NCAAF: Trends show LSU drop-off
Since reaching #3 in the AP Poll in Week 5, the LSU Tigers have been in a steady decline and nowhere is that more evident than the Sportsbook.com Betting Trends.
Only 27% of bettors like the Tigers as four-point underdogs on New Year's Eve, a far cry from the support they garnered earlier this season when many felt they were ready to contend for back-to-back championships.
But, instead of playing for a championship, LSU limps into the Chick-Fil-A Bowl against the #14 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets as an underdog that seemingly no-one wants to back. Bettors are siding with a Georgia Tech team that is an impressive 7-2-1 against the spread (ATS) and has covered their last four games.
By contrast, the Tigers are an awful 2-9 ATS this season and haven't covered a spread since October 18th, a stretch that includes six consecutive losses for LSU backers. LSU also lost three of its last four games straight up, with the only win coming against a Troy Trojans team they struggled to beat by a 40-31 score.
In that game, the Trojans actually outgained the Tigers in offensive yardage, something that should never happen to a coveted SEC program.
Quarterback struggles, injuries and a lackluster offense are partly to blame for LSU's woes but an inconsistent defense that ranks 81st against the pass (220.7 yards allowed per game) and 64th in points allowed (25.9 per game) takes most of the blame for the underachieving Tigers.
Those numbers aren't acceptable for a program that relied on defense to win the SEC and BCS Championships last season and they're a big part of the reason why bettors prefer Georgia Tech.
However, the LSU defense does perform well against the run and that's the part of the Georgia Tech offense they'll need to slow. The Yellow Jackets offense may not be able to capitalize on the fact that LSU is vulnerable against the pass as they are among the worst in the NCAA with just 95 passing yards per game.
That's why Georgia Tech will rely on a rushing game that ranks third in the country with close to 300 rushing yards per game. Jonathan Dwyer leads the Yellow Jackets running game with 1,328 yards while backup Roddy Jones and quarterback Josh Nesbitt each rushed for more than 600 yards. Add two more players with at least 200 yards rushing on the season and you have one potent attack.
But will Tech be able to rush against an LSU ‘D' that has the ability to shut down running attacks?
Place your bet on Sportsbook.com's live odds page here to voice your opinion.
Carrie Stroup, Gambling911.com Senior Reporter
