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Last week, we once again suggested playing against favorites of 10 points or more, even if it meant backing a Dallas team that had lost five straight (SU and ATS) and was 1-7 on the year (both SU and ATS). With their 33-20 victory over the New York Giants, Dallas easily covered the point spread and obviously won the game outright.
This marked the fourth straight double-digit ‘dog to cover the spread, and the second of that group to also win their game outright (Cleveland over New Orleans in Week 7). For the season, underdogs of 10 points or more are now a money-making 9-4 ATS (69%).
After checking the NFL Week 11 point spreads at Sportsbook.com, there are currently three double-digit dogs. Here are the matchups, along with some supporting football betting trends.
Play On - Home teams (Carolina) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, a terrible team (<=25%) playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season. (24-2 over the last 10 seasons.) (92.3%, +21.8 units. Rating = 4*).
Seattle (+11.5) at New Orleans
Play On - Underdogs of 10.5 or more points (Seattle) - off an upset win as a road underdog. (34-11 since 1983.) (75.6%, +21.9 units. Rating = 2*).
Play Against - Home favorites (San Diego) - excellent passing team (>=265 PY/game) against an average passing defense (185-230 PY/game), after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt last game. (33-9 over the last 5 seasons.) (78.6%, +23.1 units. Rating = 3*).
Also note that Baltimore and New Orleans are both 0-2 ATS as double-digit favorites this season.
Going into Week 9, a developing trend was unearthed that had yet to be defeated. Through the first eight weeks of the season, teams that had lost five or more consecutive games straight up were 4-0 ATS in their next game. This trend remains unbeaten after both Cincinnati and Dallas beat the spread in Week 10 after having lost five straight SU. Buffalo pushed each of the last two weeks as losers of seven and eight straight SU, but did finally earn its first outright victory in Week 10.
For the season, teams riding losing streaks of five or more SU are now 6-0 ATS and 4-4 SU. Cincinnati will put this unbeaten record to the test once again in Week 11 when it attempts to snap its six-game SU losing streak. The Bengals play at home against Buffalo.
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To bet on this weeks double-digit dogs or to simply check the NFL Week 11 betting odds, head over to Sportsbook.com now.
