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Looking at NFL football betting Week 10 we see something that last year would have had us here at Gambling911.com scratching out heads: The Dolphins are a (cough) -9 ½ favorite verses the Seattle Seahawks? Could our eyes be deceiving us?
Well, the Dolphins are much improved and the Seahawks appear a former shadow of their old selves, mostly a result of injuries.
When coach Tony Sparano was asked about the possibility of the Dolphins making the playoffs this season, he could've pulled out the old cliche of taking it one game at a time.
Instead, he asked: "Why not?"
A retort like that would've been unthinkable coming off a nightmarish 1-15 season or even two weeks ago when Miami dropped to 2-4 after losses to Houston and Baltimore.
After flying away from the Mile High City sky-high from a 26-17 victory over a Broncos team that had been 15-3 following byes, the 4-4 Dolphins find themselves just one game behind the top of a bunched-up AFC East division with a winnable three-game homestand on the agenda.
At Bookmaker.com the Dolphins still pay almost 5/1 odds to win the AFC East.
But the real question coming into this weekend is - not can they beat the Seahawks - but can they win by more than 9 ½ points?
Perhaps...but more likely...probably not.
The Dolphins have only beaten the Seahawks by more than that number in their 8 head-to-head matchups dating back to 1987 (a time when Miami was really good). They've only beaten one team by more than that margin this season (the New England Patriots). But considering some online sportsbooks do have this game at Miami -8 ½ (including Bookmaker.com) we can actually say they've beaten three teams by more than that margin since two of their wins were 9 point victories.
On the other hand, all but one of the Seahawks losses have been by more than 9 points.
We are tempted to jump on the Dolphins bandwagon until we research various trends. The Seahawks, for example, are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a straight up loss and 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games following a SU loss of more than 14 points. The Dolphins, meanwhile, are 4-17-1 ATS in their last 22 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Gambling911.com will sit on the sidelines for this game and not be offering a free pick. You can get plenty of free picks daily by visiting the Gambling911.com website here
Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com
