Renan Barao vs. TJ Dillashaw UFC 173 Fight Odds
Carrie Stroup here with your Renan Barao vs. TJ Dillashaw UFC 173 fight odds courtesy of Sportsbook.com. Place your 1st bet and get your 2nd bet free here.
Renan Barao (34-1) vs. TJ Dillashaw (10-2)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Barao -800, Dillashaw +550
Renan Barao puts his title and long unbeaten streak on the line at UFC 173 on Saturday night as he squares off against TJ Dillashaw in Las Vegas.
There are many fighters that have gone on big-time winning streaks, but none have ever went on a tear similar to the one Renan Barao is on. Since losing his first professional fight in 2005, Barao has gone 35 consecutive fights without a loss (34-0, 1 NC). During that streak, he has outlasted some terrific fighters such as Urijah Faber (2 times), Eddie Wineland and Michael McDonald. In his last fight on Feb. 1, he was able to knock Faber out in 3:42. While there was some controversy on whether or not the fight was called too early, there is no denying that Barao was in complete control of the match with a 37-9 striking advantage, including a 17-8 edge in significant strikes. Barao is a rare blend of speed and cardio, and can win a match in many different ways. For Dillashaw, he has a big opportunity in front of him. In his last fight against Mike Easton on Jan. 15, he was able to get an easy decision victory with an impressive 117-46 advantage in significant strikes. Dillashaw is seen a future star in this sport, but he will need to prove to the world that he is ready to take the next step. While Dillashaw is a talented fighter, he has not competed against anybody as good as Barao.
Of Barao’s 34 consecutive victories, 14 have come by way of submission, his preferred method of attack. But "The Baron" has shown throughout his career that he can win a match in many different ways though, posting 12 wins by decision and eight knockout victories. The Brazilian does not land as many significant strikes (3.7) as Dillashaw (4.8), but he does a terrific job of picking his spots. The 27-year-old Barao uses his strikes to not just knock his opponent out, but he has the ability to wear them down too. If he is able to establish the pace early in the fight, than he has a great chance to retain the belt. However, if he allows Dillashaw, who has an identical 5-foot-6, 135-pound frame, to gain some confidence early, then his opponent could pull off the huge upset.
Like Barao, Dillashaw has also shown the ability to win a fight in many different ways. His 10 career wins are broken down as three knockouts, three submissions and four decisions. He has been a pro only since 2010, but has gone 5-1 since losing a title bout to John Dodson on Dec. 3, 2011. When you look at the statistics for Saturday's fight, Dillashaw has the advantage on paper in most categories with the biggest advantage in takedowns with a 3.04 takedown average and 2.28 submission average, which are considerably higher than Barao's 1.59 takedown average and 0.87 submission average. Dillashaw also lands 4.8 significant strikes per minute (3.7 for Barao) and is much more accurate at 49%, compared to 36% for his opponent. Both fighters do a tremendous job of defending against the takedown though with Dillashaw at a perfect 100%, while Barao is at 95%. The 28-year-old Dillashaw is a talented young fighter out of Sacramento, CA, that has a chance to be a star in the sport, but it is unknown whether or not he is ready for a fight of this magnitude.
Robbie Lawler (22-10) vs. Jake Ellenberger (29-7)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Lawler -210, Ellenberger +170
Robbie Lawler looks to bounce back from a tough loss as he goes up against a very talented fighter in Jake Ellenberger at UFC 173 on Saturday night.
Lawler earned the nickname “Ruthless” in large part because of his ability to turn any fight into an all-out brawl. In his last match on March 15, he lost to Johny Hendricks in an interim welterweight title bout by way of unanimous decision. That was a very competitive fight (significant strikes were 158 to 150), and that match showed how talented Lawler is. A win in Saturday's fight would put him right back at the top of the ladder for another title bout. However, it will not be easy against a talented fighter in Jake Ellenberger. Like Lawler, Ellenberger is coming off a tough defeat in his last match, as he lost to Rory MacDonald by unanimous decision on July 27, 2013 at UFC on FOX 8. That match was nearly 10 months ago, and Ellenberger should come into this match healthy and ready to go.
Ellenberger has 29 wins in his career, with 20 of them coming by way of knockout. The former U.S. Marine also has six wins by decision and three by submission, and is 12-3 in his past 15 matches. "The Juggernaut" Ellenberger's big advantage in this match will be his grappling game, as he is a great wrestler going back to his days at D-II powerhouse Nebraska-Omaha. He has a takedown average of 2.69, compared to only 1.12 for Lawler. He is not only great taking his opponent down to the mat, but he also does a great job of defending against the takedown with a 93% takedown defense, compared to 65% for Lawler. This is a big opportunity for Ellenberger, but he has to come out and fight his style. If he gets tricked into throwing punches with Lawler, he could be in big trouble.
Of Lawler’s 22 career victories, 18 of them have come by way of knockout. He also has three wins by decision and only one by submission, but he has 12 first-round finishes in his career. Lawler will have a big advantage when it comes to landing significant strikes, landing an average of 3.29 per minute compared to only 2.47 for Ellenberger. Lawler is also more accurate with his strikes (43%) than his opponent (40%) and holds a one-inch height advantage at 5-foot-11. Lawler does a terrific job throwing his punches, but he also has the ability to do major damage with a leg kick. While this is a big opportunity for Ellenberger, the 32-year-old Lawler is actually in the better position to get a title bout. Ellenberger has shown he can knock his opponent out, but a brawl will be just what Lawler really wants. While this is not the main fight on the card, this has the makings of Fight of the Night consideration.
- Carrie Stroup, Gambling911.com Senior Reporter
