Super Bowl Props Betting: Debate Continues
The Statfox team continues to find Super Bowl props betting winners with their exclusive analysis, beginning with Cardinals' player props. And be sure to check out Sportsbook.com for hundreds of Super Bowl betting props plus an additional 10 percent cash bonus added to your initial deposit.
Click here for a full list of prop odds at Sportsbook.com. Note that all odds are considered (-110) unless noted.
Kurt Warner - total passing yards, Over 255.5 (-115), Under 255.5 (-115)
SF Doug: UNDER. Only Philip Rivers surpassed this number all season against Pitt's defense (in the Divisional Round). Arizona can throw the pigskin, but 94 yards over the season average for the No. 1 pass defense? Don't think so.
SF Steve: UNDER. While I believe Warner will play well on Sunday, I can't look past the fact that only one quarterback surpassed 255.5 yards passing on Pittsburgh this year.
Kurt Warner - total completions, Over 23.5 (-115), Under 23.5 (-115)
SF Steve: UNDER. It takes a lot to complete 24 passes in a game. Even if Warner does attempt 40, which I don't think he will, hitting 60% on a team that pressures the quarterback like Pittsburgh is difficult.
SF Doug: OVER. Warner has averaged just over 20 completions in the playoffs, but with Arizona trailing in the fourth quarter he will have to throw the ball and settles at 25.
Kurt Warner - total TD passes thrown, Over 1.5 (-145), Under 1.5 (+115)
SF Steve: OVER. As steep as the price is on this prop, Fitzgerald is on such a roll that he and Warner could beat this prop with no other help.
SF Doug: OVER. Put me down for three touchdowns for the former World League and Arena quarterback.
Kurt Warner - will he throw an interception? Yes (-220), No (+170)
SF Doug: YES. He might even throw two, but the first one will come on throwing the ball up for grabs trying to elude James Harrison.
SF Steve: NO. Pittsburgh has been as opportunistic as it has been strong on defense. However, Warner seems to have gotten over his shaky ways under pressure this season and +170 is a nice price.
Edgerrin James - total rushing yards, Over 42.5 (-130), Under 42.5 (+100)
SF Doug: OVER. No doubt James would love to win a ring, but let's not kid ourselves. He's looking for his next stop and wants to prove he's still worth of a good salary.
SF Steve: OVER. Oddsmakers are giving Pittsburgh a ton of credit here. James rushed for 75.8 YPG over the last four, and Arizona has found their ground game in the playoffs.
Edgerrin James - will he score a TD? Yes (+300), No (-400)
SF Steve: NO. Although I won't play this myself, I just don't believe there will be that many TD's to go around and there's a better chance they'll come through the air.
SF Doug: NO. It's a heavy price, but James only goes into the end-zone during warm-ups.
Tim Hightower - total rushing yards, Over 20.5 (-115), Under 20.5 (-115)
SF Doug: UNDER. He'll be more useful catching than running it.
SF Steve: OVER. Hightower has averaged 11.3 carries per game in the postseason. I don't see Arizona changing from that recipe unless they get down big early.
J.J. Arrington - total rushing and rec. yards, Over 16.5 (-115), Under 16.5 (-115)
SF Steve: OVER. Yes, it is true, I am going OVER for all three Arizona running backs. I don't think oddsmakers have taken the last three weeks into enough consideration. Plus, Arrington is the speed back that Arizona will need to mix it up.
SF Doug: UNDER. Arrington will be more bundled up than an out-of-towner thinking the Grand Canyon was a warm weather stop this time of year.
Larry Fitzgerald - total rec. yards, Over 95.5 (-115), Under 95.5 (-115)
SF Steve: OVER. It isn't often that players get on as much of a roll as Fitzgerald has. It reminds me a lot of the Jerry Rice or Terrell Owens situations in past Super Bowls. He will be thrown to early and often.
SF Doug: OVER. I've never heard if Fitzgerald has a nickname, but Crazy Glue would work as everything he touches sticks. He's on fire right now.
Larry Fitzgerald - total receptions, Over 6.5 (-115), Under 6.5 (-115)
SF Doug: OVER. Unless Fitzgerald gets hurt or Anquan Boldin decides to run the same exact routes, this has to go OVER.
SF Steve: OVER. I'm not convinced that Fitzgerald will be able to hit any real big plays, but I do believe he will be targeted at least a dozen times.
Larry Fitzgerald - will he score a TD? Yes (-115), No (-115)
SF Doug: YES. This is a safer bet than Steve being on the wrong side of the spread or total of the Super Bowl.
SF Steve: YES. Every time Arizona gets in the red zone this is going to be a threat with the way Fitzgerald has dominated the playoffs. Pittsburgh's corners can't match him.
Anquan Boldin - total rec. yards, Over 68.5 (-115), Under 68.5 (-115)
*** as he does with Fitzgerald. Boldin's sideline outburst isn't going to help either.
SF Doug: UNDER. Like Boldin said about his outburst during Arizona's winning drive against Philly, it will be ‘no big deal' when he goes UNDER the total.
Anquan Boldin - total receptions, Over 5.5 (-130), Under 5.5 (+100)
SF Doug: UNDER. I can see Boldin totaling five of Warner's tosses, no more.
SF Steve: UNDER. I love the +100 line on this one as well with the lofty number of 5.5. I truly believe this is Boldin's last game with Arizona. I don't see him going out big.
Anquan Boldin - longest reception, Over 18.5 (-115), Under 18.5 (-115)
SF Doug: UNDER. Only way Boldin goes past this figure is with a calculator.
SF Steve: UNDER. I'll go with the trifecta UNDER on Boldin. Many of his big yardage plays come on runs after the catch. Pittsburgh tackles much better than the NFC West.
SF Doug: OVER 52.5. I see more points, not less because of the quarterbacks, playmakers and coaches. 52.5 has a nice payout and fits my 30-24 outcome to a tee.
Super Bowl XLIII MVP
Adrian Wilson (Cardinals) +5000
Anquan Boldin (Cardinals) +1500
Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers) +175
Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (Cardinals) +4000
Edgerrin James (Cardinals) +1500
Heath Miller (Steelers) +3000
Hines Ward (Steelers) +1500
James Farrior (Steelers) +3000
James Harrison (Steelers) +3000
Karlos Dansby (Cardinals) +5000
Kurt Warner (Cardinals) +250
Larry Fitzgerald (Cardinals) +500
Nate Washington (Steelers) +4000
Santonio Holmes (Steelers) +1500
Steve Breaston (Cardinals) +4000
Tim Hightower (Cardinals) +1800
Troy Polamalu (Steelers) +1000
Willie Parker (Steelers) +700
xz Field (Any Other Player) +800
SF Steve: Fitzgerald +500 or Polamalu +1000. There are two dominant players in this game and both are capable of overtaking the quarterback for MVP honors. It depends who wins.
SF Doug: I'm going with the longshot. Since I started looking at this matchup, Santonio Holmes has been like a recurring dream in terms of big plays. Awesome payout if ‘Big Ben' gets him the ball in stride.
Margin of Victory
Cardinals Win By 01-03 pts +600
Cardinals Win By 04-07 pts +800
Cardinals Win By 08-11 pts +1800
Cardinals Win By 12-15 pts +2500
Cardinals Win By 16-19 pts +5000
Cardinals Win By 20-23 pts +5000
Cardinals Win By 24-27 pts +7500
Cardinals Win By 28-31 pts +7500
Cardinals Win By 32-35 pts +7500
Cardinals Win By 36-39 pts +10000
Cardinals Win By 40 or more +10000
Steelers Win By 01-03 pts +500
Steelers Win By 04-07 pts +400
Steelers Win By 08-11 pts +500
Steelers Win By 12-15 pts +600
Steelers Win By 16-19 pts +1200
Steelers Win By 20-23 pts +1500
Steelers Win By 24-27 pts +1500
Steelers Win By 28-31 pts +2000
Steelers Win By 32-35 pts +3000
Steelers Win By 36-39 pts +4000
Steelers Win By 40 or more +4000
SF Steve: The days of the favorite winning straight up and being an automatic cover in the Super Bowl are over. As such, I'll take both teams to win in the 01-03 point range, Arizona at +600, Pittsburgh at +500.
SF Doug: Same message as last year, bettors make money by acquiring steady growth, not chasing longshots (although I actually do like Holmes as MVP). I'm backing Pittsburgh to win by 4-7 points. Boring but prudent.
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Carrie Stroup, Gambling911.com Senior Reporter
