UFC 189 Betting Preview: McGregor vs Mendes

Carrie Stroup here with your UFC 189 betting preview including the main feature: McGregor vs. Mendes. 

Conor McGregor (17-2-0) vs. Chad Mendes (17-2-0)

UFC Interim Featherweight Bout

Sportsbook.ag Line McGregor -180, Mendes +147

With Jose Aldo pulling out of the fight with a rib injury, Conor McGregor and Chad Mendes fight for the interim featherweight title when they face-off at UFC 189.

McGregor has been an absolute beast since joining the UFC back in mid-2013 as he’s rattled off five consecutive wins with four of them ending in a knockout; three in the first round. In that time he earned himself “Performance of the Night” three times and also showed up with a “Knockout of the Night” in his UFC debut against Marcus Brimage after taking him out in just over a minute. He has no issues when on the big stage as he was able to win both the featherweight and lightweight championships when part of the CWFC (Cage Warriors Fighting Championships) and in 2014 he was the recipient of the International Fighter of the Year at the World MMA Awards. “Notorius” McGregor owns a wealth of fighting styles while fighting out of Dublin, Ireland and has not lost in the MMA world since late 2010.

Mendes is one of the best known fighters in the circuit and the former college wrestler has knocked out his opponent in five of his last six victories. Four of those knockouts came in the first round and aided him in getting to the title fight against Jose Aldo in both 2012 and late 2014. Those two matches were his only career losses as Aldo took him out by a knockout in the first round in the first go-around, but improved the second time by going the full five rouds before losing via decision with the bout earning “Fight of the Year” honors. Although this is just for the interim title, it is a chance for McGregor to knock Mendes out of contention when Aldo makes his way back from injury.

McGregor has had no issues getting through his opponents up until this point in his career and has torn off 13 consecutive victories between his time in multiple circuits. The 5’9”, 145-pound fighter lands an impressive 5.72 significant strikes per minute at an accuracy of 42% as he uses his aggressiveness to get those strikes in. With that aggressive style, he does leave himself susceptible to hits against, though, and takes 2.98 significant strikes per minute while deflecting 69% of the attempts.

Since coming to the UFC, McGregor has out-struck his opponents 166-86 and doubled up (64-32) on Dennis Siver in his last time out. Although he has not had a takedown in either of his last two fights, McGregor does have it in his repertoire with 2.60 takedowns per 15 minutes at an 83% accuracy and he showed how he can use this part of his game to win against Max Holloway when he earned four takedowns.

No fighter has put him on the mat in his time at the UFC, but it’s something that he will need to continue to defend against as his two career losses came by submission. McGregor has yet to face an opponent like Mendes, but looks to have the talent and aggressiveness to keep up with him.                                                                     

Mendes has been an immovable force since joining UFC in early 2011 with his only two career losses coming against one man, Jose Aldo. He has a much different style than his opponent in this one, landing just 2.68 significant strikes per minute at 48% accuracy and shows much better defense than McGregor with his opposition getting in just 1.93 significant strikes per minute at 30% accuracy. He’s been able to destroy his opponents in his last six victories, getting 119 strikes in compared to 70 absorbed, but had a takedown in just one of those matches. Amazingly, in that match he had a total of seven takedowns against Nik Lentz and averages 4.10 takedowns per 15 minutes fighting at a 54% accuracy.

Just like McGregor, Mendes has defended against the takedown 100% of the time and it will be a surprise to see him hit the mat in this one. “Money” Mendes has more experience at this level than McGregor and it will be tough to imagine him losing in his third chance at the title belt.