UFC Fight Night 68 Betting Odds: Boetsch vs. Henderson

Sportsbook.ag has your UFC Fight Night 68 betting odds for Boetsch vs. Henderson and more.

Tim Boetsch (18-8-0) vs. Dan Henderson (30-13-0)

Line: Henderson +150, Boetsch -185                    

Two struggling fighters, Tim Boetsch and Dan Henderson, fight in the main event at UFC 68 this coming Saturday.

Boetsch started out his UFC career in early 2008 and was an instant success with two first round knockouts in his first three matches. After his fourth match, a loss to Jason Brilz by unanimous decision at UFC 96, “The Barbarian” spent the next year winning three fights outside of the UFC circuit. Upon his return at UFC 117, he was able to rattle off five victories in his next six bouts and took all but one of the wins by decision. Unfortunately for the now 34-year-old, that was the end of his sustained success, and over his last six fights he is 2-4 with his only impressive showing coming when he earned “Performance of the Night” honors in a second round knockout over Brad Tavares last summer.

As he attempts to get back to his winning ways, he will need to get through one of th true veterans of the sport in 44-year-old Dan Henderson, who after an impressive career in the UFC, Strikeforce and Pride, has fallen on hard times with a single win over his last six fights. That last victory, coming in March of last year, did earn him “Fight of the Night” and “Performance of the Night” honors when he took out Mauricio Rua via knockout early in the third round in Brazil.

In two of his past three defeats, Henderson has been on the losing end of a very quick match, being knocked out early in the first round against both Vitor Belfort and most recently Gegard Mausasi in his return to the middleweight division. Henderson is certainly a legend of mixed martial arts, and in this fight he is going against another struggling fighter, but it will be tough for him to overcome the 10-year age difference separating him from the 185-pound Boetsch.     

Boetsch has had eight losses in his career, but half of those have came in the last six fights and he has been taken down a total of six times over the four defeats. Overall, his takedown defense average isn’t very impressive, sitting at 54% as his accuracy with his own takedowns sits at a meager 33%. With that percentage he has been able to earn himself 1.69 takedowns per 15 minutes in the octagon, but in his past eight fights has a putrid four total.

While getting the opponent on the mat isn’t the only way to win a MMA fight, he hasn’t really impressed with his striking ability either, landing 2.72 significant strikes per minute at a 50% accuracy. The mark is just barely more than what his opponents are laying on him (2.66 SApM) while he has been able to deflect 58% of the attempts. He was involved in the “Fight of the Night” in his loss to Thales Leites most recently and in the process was out-struck 26-20 while failing to defend against the second submission attempt, an arm triangle which ended things in the second round.

Boetsch has certainly not been fighting his best lately, and despite the decade of age between him and Henderson, will need to put up a nice effort against one of the most well known fighters in the sport.            

Henderson has been around for what seems like forever with his first UFC match coming at UFC 17 in 1998, but he did not fight again in the circuit until 2007 when he made his return and lost his first two bouts back. He was very successful when competing in the Pride Fighting Championships where he was the middleweight and welterweight champion, but overall in his career he has actually been outhit 2.55 significant strikes per minute compared to a mere 2.38 significant strikes per minute landed himself. He has been able to land only 47% of his total strikes as his opposition had a better rate of 50%.

Henderson has been manhandled recently and over his last three losses has seen his opponent land 66 strikes compared to his meager 11. Statistically, not much else has stood out for “Hendo” as he gets 1.61 takedowns per 15 minutes of fighting and has only defended against opponent takedowns 58% of the time.

Henderson has certainly lost a step and will have trouble defeating most decent fighters at the moment.

- Carrie Stroup, Gambling911.com Senior Reporter