UFC on FX 1 Fight Odds
Carrie Stroup here with your UFC on FX 1 fight odds featuring Melvin Guillard vs. Jim Miller and more. Bet on this event at Sportsbook.com, featuring up to $250 in FREE CASH based on initial deposit.
Melvin Guillard (46-10-3) vs. Jim Miller (20-3-0)
Sportsbook.com Line: Miller -200, Guillard +160
MMA veteran Melvin Guillard takes the octagon for UFC on FX Friday night to take on Jim Miller in a lightweight battle.
Both fighters enter this bout coming off a loss, with Guillard falling to Joe Lauzon his last time out and Miller losing to Benson Henderson. Prior to that, though, each had a long string of success as Guillard had won five consecutively while Miller had won seven in a row, all as a part of UFC for both of them. The defining factor for this fight, however, should come down to defense where Guillard excels compared to his foe. Guillard bases his attacking style off takedowns (47%), which Miller has proven vulnerable to in his career. Miller successfully avoids just 38% of takedowns, a low rate against somebody with the skillset of Guillard rooted in kickboxing, wrestling and Jiu-Jitsu.
Guillard has won eight of his past 10 fights, with four of those wins coming via knockout. Takedowns and striking are dominant in his attacking style with submissions hardly factoring in. Although he was defeated handily by Lauzon his last time out, falling in just 47 seconds, both of his wins prior to that came in the first round, over Shane Roller and Evan Dunham. Guillard is a veteran of the sport, entering his 60th match Friday, and the 28-year-old has not shown significant signs of aging, with those wins both coming within the last year. Receiving help from the lines makes Guillard the unquestioned play in this bout.
Miller’s game is grounded in wrestling, making him a submission artist who likes to end fights early. Eleven of his 20 career wins have come via submission, and doing the same against Guillard is his best chance at winning. Guillard’s recent loss to Lauzon came as a submission, a rear-naked choke to Lauzon. Miller, also 28 years old, will just have to be defend himself properly before he executes that, something he has not always been able to do consistently as a poor takedown defender. He is still fine defending strikes (avoids 68%), so he does have a decent chance at winning, but should be avoided as this fight’s chalk.
Duane Ludwig (29-11-0) vs. Josh Neer (32-10-1)
Sportsbook.com Line: Neer -125, Ludwig -105
Duane “Bang” Ludwig and Josh “The Dentist” Neer take the octagon in an evenly matched welterweight bout on Friday.
Ludwig has fought as a lightweight and welterweight in his career and returned to the welterweight division two fights ago. Prior to his move back up, he had lost three of his four bouts. He has won both fights since though, both wins via decision. Neer, on the other hand, rarely lets his fights go the distance. Seventeen of his 32 wins have come by knockout, and another 11 via submission, leaving just four wins by decision. Five of his 10 losses have come that way, however. Ludwig’s game is almost exclusively striking (81%) and has the endurance to win long fights. Neer focuses on submissions and striking, but also incorporates takedowns. As the lines indicate, this should be a tight match throughout.
Ludwig, 33 years old, is famous for unofficially posting the fastest knockout in UFC history, in 6.06 seconds. While 10 of his 21 wins have come via knockout, he is a different fighter as a welterweight, with his two most recent wins coming via decision. Ludwig is trained in Muay Thai and previously had a career in kickboxing where he was a very talented fighter, going 43-7-1. Play on him to outlast Neer in this bout between two veterans.
The 28-year-old Neer enters this bout on a five-fight winning streak, the last four of which came by TKO. Only one of those fights made it to the second round. Like Ludwig, he is trained in Muay Thai, but is also a wrestler, giving him a versatile attacking style. The key for Neer in this fight will be to be aggressive and try to knock Ludwig out early.
Pat Barry (6-4-0) vs. Christian Morecraft (7-2-0)
Sportsbook.com Line: Barry -180, Morecraft +150
Pat Barry and Christian Morecraft will battle in a heavyweight throwdown on the main card for UFC on FX on Friday night in Nashville.
Morecraft enters this fight at 260 pounds, 25 more than his opponent. Furthermore, at 6-foot-6, Morecraft is seven inches taller than Barry and has a reach seven inches longer, a big factor in heavyweight fights such as these. Morecraft is also a far more versatile than his foe, who is a pure striker. Five of Barry’s wins have come via knockout, while Morecraft has wins by both knockout and submission. Morecraft has struggled recently since moving to UFC where he has lost two of his three bouts. Barry has struggled in UFC action too, with losses in four out of his seven bouts, including two straight defeats. Morecraft, however, is a more talented fighter that should be able to develop over the long run. His varied skillset makes him dangerous in the octagon, compared to Barry who is one-dimensional as a striker.
Barry is very short for the weight class, standing at just 5-foot-11. He is a pure striker who relies on his kickboxing skills to take him to victory. That has not been effective recently, however, losing in a submission his last time out and a KO the time before that. Only one of his career wins has come as a decision, so he will have to take this fight quickly with a knockout to get the victory as a favorite here.
Morecraft has three career wins via knockout and four via submission. His strength and endurance make him a tough opponent. His versatile game incorporates submissions, takedowns and strikes. He must improve from his last bout, a KO loss to Matt Mitrione, but he showed his potential in the fight before that, a second-round submission of Sean McCorkle. Play on the 6-foot-6 giant with the height and weight advantage in this one.
- Carrie Stroup, Gambling911.com Senior Reporter
