The Ultimate Fighter Live Finale Betting Odds

Carrie Stroup here with The Ultimate Fighter Live Finale betting odds.  You can place your wagers here online at Sportsbook. 

Jake Ellenberger (27-5) vs. Martin Kampmann (19-5)

Sportsbook.ag Line: Ellenberger -250, Kampmann +190

Headlining The Ultimate Fighter 15 Live Finale, Jake Ellenberger and Martin Kampmann will take the octagon for a welterweight bout.

An NCAA Division II wrestler by trade, Ellenberger’s game is centered around takedowns and those wrestling techniques. Overall, he uses those to set up a knockout win, which he has done 17 times in his career. Kampmann, on the other hand, is more of a striker who dabbles with submissions, winning seven via knockout and seven via submission in his career. Both fighters enter this bout on a roll, as Ellenberger is the winner of six straight UFC fights and Kampmann has won two in a row. Kampmann has impressive wins, including his most recent submission of Thiago Alves, but he has also lost to fighters he should beat like Jake Shields at the end of 2010. Ellenberger, by comparison, TKO’ed Shields 53 seconds into their bout last September.

Ellenberger’s winning streak has come against a strong crew of fighters, with knockouts of Shields, Sean Pierson and John Howard. More than anything else, however, Ellenberger is known for his chin and the ability to withstand any blow, something that may not bode well for his opponent, an adamant striker. And what makes Ellenberger’s wrestling so effective is his takedown defense, avoiding 91% of takedowns in his career. As long as he is savvy enough to dictate the tempo, he should be golden.

Kampmann’s attack strategy seems increasingly focused on submissions and grappling, something people do not give him proper credit for. Two of his past four wins have been via submission, both guillotine chokes. Still, before his two-fight winning streak, he lost consecutive bouts to Diego Sanchez and Jake Shields, the two fighters Ellenberger has beaten most recently. While Kampmann has the chance to surprise with an early submission, it’s just tough to see him pulling out a longer fight against an opponent with such an iron chin.

Michael Chiesa (7-0) vs. Al Iaquinta (5-1-1)

Sportsbook.ag Line: Iaquinta -250, Chiesa +190

In the live Ultimate Fighter tournament finale, Al Iaquinta will look to hand Michael Chiesa his first career loss.

Iaquinta has been quite impressive on The Ultimate Fighter, displaying strong striking and wrestling at different points along the way. Professionally, he has only fought in the Ring of Combat series, where he lost his last bout, but proved a generally respectable fighter with three of his five career wins coming as knockouts. Chiesa, on the other hand, is a grappler who will likely have to win this by submission to come away victorious. Having fought all over in his career, five of his career wins have come via submission. Although Iaquinta is probably the better-rounded fighter and deserves to be favored, Chiesa certainly stands a great chance in this bout with his ability to pull off a submission at any time.

At 6-foot-1, Chiesa holds a major size advantage over the 5-foot-9 Iaquinta. Chiesa prefers to fight standing up with an orthodox fighting style, looking to lure his opponents into a submission from his feet. And, if he shows some of the knockout ability he has aired on this season’s Ultimate Fighter, that will be an extra bonus for his repertoire to win this fight.

Iaquinta has developed some hype on this season of the show, making noise that he could be a serious contender in the lightweight division should he win this bout. While he probably expects to beat a fighter such as Chiesa, his one career loss professionally was a submissions, something he needs to be wary of here. Also a good stand-up fighter, Iaquinta has the endurance to win if this fight goes to a decision.

- Carrie Stroup, Gambling911.com Senior Reporter