Week 11 Thursday Night Football Betting Preview
Two teams trying to inch closer to the top of the AFC South standings will meet on Thursday night when the Jaguars host the Titans. Both teams are within two games of first place in the division with 2-7 Tennessee sitting two games back and 3-6 Jacksonville trailing the Colts and Texans by only one game.
TENNESSEE TITANS (2-7) at JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (3-6)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Jacksonville -3, Total: 42.5
The Titans (4-5 ATS) have really struggled to score since the start of October with 13 points or less in five of six games, but the Jaguars (5-4 ATS) are starting to click on offense with 20+ points in five straight games, including three consecutive ATS wins (2-1 SU).
These teams have split the season series for six straight years, with both home teams prevailing in 2014 low-scoring affairs (Tennessee 16-14, Jacksonville 21-13).
There aren't many positive betting trends for Saturday's game, but the Titans do fall into the category of losing road teams going 62-30 ATS (67%) since 1983 after a 1-3 SU slide in the second half of the season when the line is +3 to -3. But the Jaguars benefit from the fact that their Thursday opponent is 1-9 ATS when facing a team with a losing record since 2014.
While Tennessee is relatively healthy, Jacksonville has several question marks, especially on offense with RB T.J. Yeldon (foot) and WR Allen Hurns (hernia), who are both uncertain to play.
Tennessee has scored just 18.8 PPG on 322 total YPG for the season, but those numbers have been much better on the road at 24.0 PPG and 347 total YPG. The team is gaining only 97 rushing YPG on 4.0 YPC, but is throwing for a solid 224 YPG on 6.7 YPA.
Rookie QB Marcus Mariota is averaging 256 passing YPG in his seven starts with 13 TD and only six interceptions. What is truly amazing is that he has yet to throw a pick on the road, compiling 279 passing YPG, 10 TD and 0 INT in three away games. His top receiver is TE Delanie Walker, who has 508 receiving yards and 3 TD this season.
RB Antonio Andrews began to run very well to start the month with 152 rushing yards in two games, but was held to eight yards on 11 carries last week.
Tennessee's defense is allowing a pedestrian 23.8 PPG on 326 total YPG this season. The club does a much better job at stopping opposing runners (112 YPG on 4.0 YPC) than quarterbacks, surrendering 214 passing YPG on 7.3 YPA. That's not a good sign going up against a red-hot signal caller for the Jaguars.
Jacksonville QB Blake Bortles has thrown for at least two touchdowns in five straight games to increase his season stats to 265 passing YPG, 19 TD and 11 INT. Bortles is the biggest reason why his team is averaging 26.3 PPG in the past three games, making the team's season averages of 21.3 PPG and 344 total YPG much more respectable. Bortles had a decent series versus Tennessee last year as a rookie with a 63% completion rate, 226 YPG, 2 TD and 1 INT in the two meetings. This season he's relying heavily on WR Allen Robinson, who has caught at least five passes in five straight outings.
Jacksonville has not been a great rushing team this year (96 YPG on 4.1 YPC), but does have 90+ rushing yards in three consecutive games. However, 240 of those yards have gone to top RB T.J. Yeldon (531 rush yds, 4.0 YPC, 1 TD), and if he's unable to play, the No. 2 rusher is RB Denard Robinson who has totaled just 50 yards on 15 carries (3.3 YPC) all season.
Defensively, the Jaguars have been way too generous in giving up 28.3 PPG on 362 total YPG. Being on the field for an average of 32:08 hasn't helped, nor has the passing defense that is surrendering 268 passing YPG (7.1 YPA) on 67% completions. Jacksonville has been fierce in stopping the run though, allowing only 94 YPG on 3.3 YPC. Turnovers have been a real key for this unit, which has forced four turnovers in each of its past two victories, but has a total of three takeaways in six losses.
