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Sports Interaction betting analyst Frank Doyle considers what home advantage may or may not mean in the Wild Card Weekend as he provides Gambling911.com readers with his Wild Card Weekend free picks and analyes from a bookmaker's perspective.
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I might as well get the controversial pick out of the way first. Every home team is a dog this week, and the only one I like to cover is Minnesota.
People are getting carried away with Philadelphia's win over Dallas. A lot of that result has to do with Dallas choking as well as Philly winning. But I personally think that a lot of the reason so many media outlets are bigging up the Iggles is out of guilt. Guilt at having a pop at Donovan McNabb earlier, for writing him off earlier in the year and for not recognising him as one of the great quarterbacks of his time over the years.
But McNabb's problem in Philly is the same as it's always been. The only time McNabb has a supporting cast was when Terrell Owens was there, and the Eagles got the Super Bowl. I don't think McNabb has an equivalent level of talent around him.
Tarvaris Jackson doesn't compare to Donovan McNabb for a moment at this point in his career (although it is interesting to note that Jackson's quarterback rating for the season is 95.4, while McNabb's is 86.4. Go figure). Jackson is only three years in the league; he might pick it up, he might not. But Jackson has the option of handing off to Adrian Peterson and if Peterson had feathers instead of horns painted on his helmet, the Vikings would be as well to just concede this now and not pay for the light bills in the Metrodome. But Peterson is the man who's got the Vikings to the playoffs, and I think he'll make the difference. Philly beat Dallas sure, but the Eagles also lost to Washington and tied with Cincinnati. Bottom line is I can't find it in my heart to trust them. Minnesota +3.0 with Sports Interaction is the pick.
Elsewhere, we're seeing a lot of steam on the other three favorites, and it's not rocket science to figure out why. Arizona has looked just wretched in December, and that's not the sort of lethargy you just shake off. Atlanta has been magnificent all year, and the dream continues for another week at least. I believe in The Burner - Falcons -2.5 with Sports Interaction is the pick.
In the AFC, Baltimore stomped the Dolphins back in October, and there's no reason to believe that the Ravens can't do it again. They've been flying under the radar, but I can't imagine anyone wanting to play Baltimore at any stage. They could possibly go all the way but for this weekend they're flying out of Miami. Baltimore -3.0 with Sports Interaction is the pick.
Finally - what a shock it was to hear that late season collapse cost Mike Shanahan his job at Denver. San Diego is walking on air right now but Indianapolis has won nine straight and Peyton Manning is very possibly the best quarterback we're ever seen. Indianapolis -1.5 with Sports Interaction is the final pick of the week.
Frank Doyle, Gambling911.com
