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MCALLEN, Texas (GAMBLING911.com) - The Democrats weren't supposed to win Texas's 15th congressional district. It was substantially redrawn as part of the Republican-led 2025 redistricting effort ahead of the 2026 midterms. However, it was not one of the five Democratic-held districts Republicans specifically targeted to flip.
Democrat Bobby Pulido, a popular Tejano musician, is now a -800 favorite to win here. That represents a three-point jump from October 5 when Pulido came in with -500 odds.
Reuters reported September 23 that shifting Latino voter sentiment could make the newly configured 15th District more competitive than Republicans anticipated.
Before redistricting, the district was already Republican-leaning and represented by Republican Monica De La Cruz. But that all appears to be changing.
After redistricting, roughly 80% of the newly configured Texas 15 district now consists of territory De La Cruz had not represented during the previous two election cycles with the district exchanging portions of McAllen for areas including Donna and Weslaco, while adding territory toward the Texas Coastal Bend.
A recent Texas Southern University found that Pulido leads the incumbent Republican Rep., 51% to 44%.
The poll was conducted Oct. 13-16 among 650 likely voters in the district and has a 3.8% margin of error.
US President Donald Trump carried both the old and new configurations by approximately 18 percentage points in the 2024 presidential election, according to an analysis of voting patterns.
But Pulido has strong name recognition. He has been a household name in South Texas for more than 30 years. His hits, including Desvelado and Se Murió de Amor, are especially familiar in the Rio Grande Valley. He's a Latin Grammy winner, and his music is part of the region's cultural identity.
House Odds Updated October 21, 2026
All odds courtesy of BetOnline here
| District | Candidate | Odds | Probability |
| Alabama-02 | Rhett Marques (R) | -325 | 76% |
| Shomari Figures (D) | +250 | 24% | |
| Arizona-01 | Jay Feely (R) | +375 | 17% |
| Amish Shah (D) | -500 | 83% | |
| Arizona-02 | Eli Crane (R) | -300 | 75% |
| Jonathan Nez (D) | +240 | 25% | |
| Arizona-06 | Juan Ciscomani (R) | +500 | 11% |
| JoAnna Mendoza (D) | -800 | 89% | |
| Arkansas-02 | French Hill (R) | -700 | 88% |
| Chris Jones (D) | +450 | 12% | |
| California-04 | Mike Thompson (D) | -500 | 83% |
| Eric Jones (D) | +375 | 17% | |
| California-07 | Doris Matsui (D) | -185 | 65% |
| Mai Vang (D) | +155 | 35% | |
| California-14 | Aisha Wahab (D) | -800 | 89% |
| Melissa Hernandez (D) | +500 | 11% | |
| California-22 | David Valadao (R) | +750 | 6% |
| Randy Villegas (D) | -1500 | 94% | |
| California-34 | Angela Gonzales-Torres (D) | -400 | 80% |
| Jimmy Gomez (D) | +300 | 20% | |
| California-40 | Ken Calvert (R) | -200 | 67% |
| Young Kim (R) | +160 | 33% | |
| Colorado-03 | Jeff Hurd (R) | -300 | 75% |
| Dwayne Romero (D) | +240 | 25% | |
| Colorado-04 | Lauren Boebert (R) | -250 | 71% |
| Eileen Laubacher (D) | +200 | 29% | |
| Colorado-05 | Jeff Crank (R) | -325 | 76% |
| Jessica Killin (D) | +250 | 24% | |
| Colorado-08 | Gabe Evans (R) | +550 | 10% |
| Manny Rutinel (D) | -900 | 90% | |
| Florida-07 | Ryan Elijah (R) | -225 | 69% |
| Bale Dalton (D) | +185 | 31% | |
| Florida-09 | Dan Green (R) | -300 | 75% |
| Darren Soto (D) | +240 | 25% | |
| Florida-13 | Anna Paulina Luna (R) | -300 | 75% |
| Leela Gray (D) | +240 | 25% | |
| Florida-14 | Kathy Castor (D) | -225 | 69% |
| Mike Beltran (R) | +185 | 31% | |
| Florida-22 | Casey Askar (R) | +120 | 40% |
| Pia Dandiya (D) | -150 | 60% | |
| Florida-25 | Jared Moskowitz (D) | -700 | 88% |
| Scott Singer (R) | +450 | 12% | |
| Florida-27 | Maria Elvira Salazar (R) | -215 | 68% |
| Elliott Rodriguez (D) | +175 | 32% | |
| Indiana-05 | Victoria Spartz (R) | -650 | 87% |
| J.D. Ford (D) | +425 | 13% | |
| Iowa-01 | Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) | +700 | 7% |
| Christina Bohannan (D) | -1400 | 93% | |
| Iowa-02 | Lindsay James (D) | -150 | 60% |
| Joe Mitchell (R) | +120 | 40% | |
| Iowa-03 | Zach Nunn (R) | +400 | 14% |
| Sarah Trone Garriott (D) | -600 | 86% | |
| Kentucky-06 | Ralph Alvarado (R) | -275 | 73% |
| Zach Dembo (D) | +215 | 27% | |
| Maine-02 | Paul LePage (R) | -210 | 68% |
| Matt Dunlap (D) | +170 | 32% | |
| Michigan-04 | Bill Huizenga (R) | -130 | 57% |
| Sean McCann (D) | +100 | 43% | |
| Michigan-07 | William Lawrence (D) | -185 | 65% |
| Tom Barrett (R) | +155 | 35% | |
| Michigan-10 | Christina Hines (D) | -225 | 69% |
| Michael Bouchard Jr. (R) | +185 | 31% | |
| Minnesota-01 | Brad Finstad (R) | -400 | 80% |
| Jake Johnson (D) | +300 | 20% | |
| Missouri-02 | Ann Wagner (R) | -325 | 76% |
| Fred Wellman (D) | +250 | 24% | |
| Montana-01 | Aaron Flint (R) | -250 | 71% |
| Sam Forstag (D) | +200 | 29% | |
| Nebraska-01 | Mike Flood (R) | -700 | 88% |
| Chris Backemeyer (D) | +450 | 12% | |
| Nevada-02 | David Flippo (R) | -325 | 76% |
| Teresa Benitez-Thompson (D) | +250 | 24% | |
| New Jersey-02 | Jeff Van Drew (R) | -550 | 85% |
| Zack Mullock (D) | +375 | 15% | |
| New Jersey-07 | Thomas Kean Jr. (R) | +900 | 5% |
| Rebecca Bennett (D) | -1800 | 95% | |
| New York-01 | Nick Lalota (R) | -900 | 90% |
| Chris Gallant (D) | +550 | 10% | |
| New York-17 | Mike Lawler (R) | +150 | 36% |
| Cait Conley (D) | -180 | 64% | |
| New York-21 | Anthony Constantino (R) | -325 | 76% |
| Blake Gendebien (D) | +250 | 24% | |
| North Carolina-01 | Don Davis (D) | -250 | 71% |
| Laurie Buckhout (R) | +200 | 29% | |
| North Carolina-09 | Richard Hudson (R) | -600 | 86% |
| Richard Ojeda (D) | +400 | 14% | |
| North Carolina-11 | Jamie Ager (D) | -425 | 81% |
| Jennifer Balkcom (R) | +325 | 19% | |
| Ohio-07 | Brian Poindexter (D) | -550 | 85% |
| Max Miller (R) | +375 | 15% | |
| Ohio-09 | Marcy Kaptur (D) | -325 | 76% |
| Derek Merrin (R) | +250 | 24% | |
| Ohio-10 | Mike Turner (R) | -800 | 89% |
| Kristina Knickerbocker (D) | +500 | 11% | |
| Ohio-15 | Mike Carey (R) | -400 | 80% |
| Don Leonard (D) | +300 | 20% | |
| Pennsylvania-01 | Brian Fitzpatrick (R) | -185 | 65% |
| Bob Harvie (D) | +155 | 35% | |
| Pennsylvania-07 | Ryan Mackenzie (R) | +600 | 9% |
| Bob Brooks (D) | -1000 | 91% | |
| Pennsylvania-08 | Rob Bresnahan (R) | +250 | 24% |
| Paige Cognetti (D) | -325 | 76% | |
| Pennsylvania-10 | Scott Perry (R) | +400 | 14% |
| Janelle Stelson (D) | -600 | 86% | |
| South Carolina-01 | Jenny Costa Honeycutt (R) | -300 | 75% |
| Nancy S. Lacore (D) | +240 | 25% | |
| Texas-15 | Bobby Pulido (D) | -800 | 89% |
| Monica De La Cruz (R) | +500 | 11% | |
| Texas-23 | Brandon Herrera (R) | -300 | 75% |
| Katy Padilla Stout (D) | +240 | 25% | |
| Texas-34 | Vicente Gonzalez (D) | -800 | 89% |
| Eric Flores (R) | +500 | 11% | |
| Texas-35 | Johnny C. Garcia (D) | -200 | 67% |
| Carlos De La Cruz (R) | +160 | 33% | |
| Virginia-01 | Rob Wittman (R) | +120 | 40% |
| Shannon Taylor (D) | -150 | 60% | |
| Virginia-02 | Elaine Luria (D) | -1200 | 92% |
| Jen Kiggans (R) | +600 | 8% | |
| Virginia-05 | John McGuire (R) | -275 | 73% |
| Tom Perriello (D) | +215 | 27% | |
| Washington-03 | Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D) | -1500 | 94% |
| John Braun (R) | +750 | 6% | |
| Washington-05 | Michael Baumgartner (R) | -900 | 90% |
| Carmela Conroy (D) | +550 | 10% | |
| Wisconsin-01 | Bryan Steil (R) | -225 | 69% |
| Mitchell Berman (D) | +185 | 31% | |
| Wisconsin-03 | Rebecca Cooke (D) | -325 | 76% |
| Derrick Van Orden (R) | +250 | 24% |
- T C Jackson, Gambling911.com
