Trump Takes Tiny Hit in POTUS, GOP Betting Odds Following Colorado News
In light of the shocking Colorado Supreme Court ruling to keep Trump off the 2024 Election ballot, there are odds on whether or not another state will act in similarity.
BetOnline.ag has given the possibility of another state barring Trump from the ballot 8/1, or +800, odds, meaning it is highly unlikely. These odds are the equivalent of a two-touchdown underdog in football winning outright.
That being said, there are 13 states where this action is currently being considered. They include Alaska, Arizona, Nevada, Texas, Vermont and Wisconsin. Three of these states - Arizona, Nevada and Wisconsin - are critical swing states. There are also existing lawsuits attempting to disqualify Trump from the ballot.
The Supreme Court is expected to be asked to overturn the Colorado Supreme Court’s decision. The court has yet to decide whether it will take up the case. Colorado’s primary ballot deadline falls in early January at which point it will be determined whether Trump's name will appear on the ballot. The Colorado justices made it clear that Colorado Secretary of State Jena Griswold “will continue to be required to include President Trump’s name on the 2024 presidential primary ballot until the receipt of any order or mandate from the Supreme Court.”
Any SCOTUS decision is likely to apply to the general election ballot and not the Colorado primary due to the tight time frame, especially this being the holiday season. The US Supreme Court could even decide the matter can no longer be resolved once the January 4 deadline has passed.
Both the Colorado district court and supreme courts found that Trump engaged in an insurrection. The district court found that the rules in the 14th Amendment did not apply to the presidency whereas the supreme court determined the rules do apply to the president.
Legal experts are mixed as to whether the rule applies to “to any office" with some believing the rule does not apply to elected offices, only those appointed such as judges.
Will Trump be kept off any state ballot due to a ruling regarding the 14th Amendment?
Yes +800
No -2500
Additionally, there were some changes on the 2024 GOP and POTUS odds due to the decision. You can see how Trump and other Republican candidates were impacted here:
PRESIDENT
Trump +130 (Odds worsened from +115 yesterday)
Haley +600 (Odds improved from +700 yesterday)
DeSantis +2500 (Odds improved from +3300 yesterday)
Ramaswamy +4000 (Odds improved from +5000 yesterday)
REPUBLICAN NOMINEE
Trump -750 (Odds worsened from -1000 yesterday)
Haley +450 (Odds improved from +550 yesterday)
DeSantis +1400 (Odds improved from +2000 yesterday)
Ramaswamy +2500 (Odds improved from +3000 yesterday)
The full odds board for the 2024 U.S. Presential Election is below.
BetOnline.ag Political Analyst and Oddsmaker, Paul Krishnamurty, on the markets:
“It seems extremely unlikely that the Supreme Court will allow this ruling to stand, and that whatever they rule will guide other states considering such a move. Even if it does, as a Blue State, Colorado is largely irrelevant to determining the electoral college in this scenario.
“However, where it might make an impact is in the GOP race. While such legal battles persist, and Trump’s first criminal case regarding January 6 is scheduled for March, it may strengthen the idea that he is too risky to choose as nominee, and that after a conviction, they may need to think again.
“It gives his opponents hope and a reason to stay in. However, overall, I think this probably helps rather than hinders Trump, as it will reinforce his ‘victim’ status and claims that the establishment is out to deny democracy using any means. It will help him raise money at the end of the day.”
2024 Presidential Election
Donald Trump Sr. +115
Joe Biden +200
Nikki Haley +600
Gavin Newsom +750
Michelle Obama +1800
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. +1800
Ron DeSantis +2500
Kamala Harris +4000
Vivek Ramaswamy +4000
Mark Cuban +5000
Elizabeth Warren +6500
Joe Manchin +10000
Gretchen Whitmer +12500
Hillary Clinton +12500
Amy Klobuchar +20000
Dean Phillips +20000
Michael Bloomberg +20000
Tucker Carlson +20000
Liz Cheney +25000
Michael Johnson +25000
Bernie Sanders +30000
Glenn Youngkin +30000
Pete Buttigieg +30000
Andrew Yang +50000
Brian Kemp +50000
Chris Christie +50000
Deion Sanders +50000
Donald Trump Jr. +50000
Doug Burgum +50000
George Clooney +50000
Ivanka Trump +50000
Kanye West +50000
Marianne Williamson +50000
Asa Hutchinson +75000
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez +100000
Joe Rogan +100000
Mark Zuckerberg +100000
Meghan Markle +100000
Oprah Winfrey +100000
- Gilbert Horowitz, Gambling911.com
