Will USC Trojans Cover the Spread vs. Washington? We Say YES
The Washington vs. USC game has trended Huskies -4.5 to -3. We did see a book drop to -2.5 and immediately move back up again. Action was 73% on Washington as of Friday morning with the number at -3 and was closer to 65% at -3.5. This seems to suggest that books would like gamblers to back Washington and NOT the Trojans.
Diving Deeper Into the Line Movement
This week, Sagarin has USC (7-2 Straight Up, 2-7 Against The Spread) the 18th rated team in the nation. Their ATS record suggests the Trojans are very much underperforming in 2023. There still seems to be an overlay as we get a number of 0.93 as Washington is ranked No. 15 by Sagarin with their 8-0 record Straight Up and 3-4 Against The Spread.
Here we have a clear overlay of 2 to 3.5 points. In this line range of 3/3.5/4/4.5 without going below the 3, overlays in this range heavily go towards the dog based on our model.
There is a strong lean on USC based on our own model and the early push by books to get action on the Huskies.
Washington May Still Win
As an underdog dating back to 2015, USC is 3-22 Straight Up at home. They are a bit better Against The Spread over this span as a dog, going 7-18 Against The Spread.
The Huskies are 22-28-1 ATS as an away favorite dating back to 2018.
Recent Trend History
Washington has won two of the last three in the series but these were prior to 2020.
USC was hit with two consecutive losses before a win their last game. Prior to that they had won six straight games. One of the two losses was a blowout at the hands of Notre Dame. The other, they were slight favorites but lost by two points to Utah.
Washington is yet to have a loss this season.
Washington vs. USC Game and Player Prop Bets
Over Under Passing Yards
Caleb Williams (Usc Trojans) Over(316.5)
Michael Penix Jr. (Washington Huskies) Over(369.5)
Touchdowns
Dillon Johnson
1+
-501
2+
+100
3+
+600
Rome Odunze
1+
-334
2+
+150
3+
+900
MarShawn Lloyd
1+
-251
2+
+200
3+
+1100
Caleb Williams
1+
-251
2+
+200
3+
+1100
Ja'Lynn Polk
1+
-201
2+
+250
3+
+1400
Jalen McMillan
1+
-167
2+
+300
3+
+1700
Austin Jones
1+
-126
2+
+400
3+
+2100
Tahj Washington
1+
-126
2+
+400
3+
+2100
Brenden Rice
1+
-126
2+
+400
3+
+2100
Jack Westover
1+
+120
2+
+600
3+
+3400
Germie Bernard
1+
+160
2+
+850
3+
+6400
Dorian Singer
1+
+270
2+
+1900
3+
+11000
Lake McRee
1+
+270
2+
+1900
3+
+11000
Zachariah Branch
1+
+280
2+
+2100
3+
+11000
Devin Culp
1+
+300
2+
+2400
3+
+12000
Michael Jackson III
1+
+325
2+
+2600
3+
+12000
Michael Penix Jr.
1+
+325
2+
+2600
3+
+12000
Mario Williams
1+
+350
2+
+2900
3+
+15000
Game Props
3 Straight Scores by Either Team
yes
-501
no
+323
Team to Score First
USC
-102
WAS
-132
Any Team to Score 40+ Points
yes
-313
no
+220
First score of Game is Touchdown
yes
-345
no
+223
Will there be Overtime
yes
+800
yes
+800
no
-2000
Will there be a Scoreless Quarter
yes
+598
no
-1250
Time of First Score O/U 5 (mins elapsed)
Under(5)
-150
Over(5)
+111
Defensive or special teams TD scored
yes
+129
no
-173
- Tyrone Black, Gambling911.com
