NFL Week 8 Action Report, Hot Lines Trend Alert
The public is coming in hot with the Denver Broncos for Sunday's early London game. BetOnline's Dave Mason is here to break down which teams are getting the most love from the public and which teams will be Team BetOnline come Sunday! Scroll down to find some red hot line trends.
Other hot sides include Arizona +3.5 getting 74% of the spread action at Minnesota. 66% of the early cash was on Seattle -3 in their game versus the visiting Giants. And 67% of the spread action was on San Francisco +1 at the Rams.
Sharp action includes Carolina +6, Houston +3 and Miami -3.
Red Hot Line Trends
A staggering 17 of 20 favorites have covered when the line is 3 or below having hit the number 2.5 (not including games that do not reach above the 2) and having not gone above the 3. Note an adjustment as the Minnesota vs. Miami game originally counted among this trend ultimately went above the number 3.
This week we got three games that fit this scenario.
New England Patriots -1.5 to -2.5 @ New York Jets
Tennessee Titans -2.5 @Houston Texans
This one had opened at Titans -3.5 briefly at a few books but not long enough to prevent the game from fitting into the trend.
Seattle -2.5 to -3 vs. New York Giants
Let's now look at the accuracy of these lines.
The Jets may be 5-2 but Sagarin believes this to be a fluke. They remain rated at No. 21 out of all teams. With home field advantage tacked on, the Jets come in with a number of 20.08.
The Patriots sit at No. 15 this week with a number of 20.52. That gives us a magic number (line) of 0.44 or a PICK'EM.
New England is just barely the right team favored, though one can argue the Jets should be.
The one thing that's evident is we have a 1 to 2 point overlay. Let's now look at overlays within this 2.5 to 3 point line trend so far this season.
1. New Orleans -3 to -2.5 Carolina (home dog covered and won by 8 points) New Orleans 0.61 Overlay of 2 to 2.5 points.
2. New England -1 to -2.5 Pittsburgh (road favorite New England covers with 3 point win) New England 1.43 On the Money to Overlay of 1
3. Denver +1.5 to +2.5 Las Vegas (home favorite covers and wins by 9) Vegas 0.90 - On the Money to a 1.5 Overlay
4. LA Rams +1.5 to +2.5 San Francisco (home favorite San Francisco covers and wins big) San Francisco 1.66 On the Money to Overlay of 1
5. LA Chargers -3 to -1.5 Cleveland (road favorite LA covers and wins) LA 3.28 Wrong Team Favored 4.5 to 6 point overlay
6. New England +2.5 to +3 Cleveland (road dog NE covers and wins) NE 1 Wrong Team Favored - Overlay of 3.5 to 4
7. Buffalo -2.5 Kansas City (road favorite Buffalo covers with 4-point win) Buffalo 0.1 Overlay 1.5 to 2.5
8. Jacksonville +2.5 to +1.5 Indianapolis (home favorite Indy covers) Indy 4.63 Overlay of 2 to 3 points
One thing you will notice here is that two of the dogs that covered were in games that had an overlay. The only other dog to cover as part of this trend featured an accurate line. Quite a few of the games within this trend featured accurate lines while there were only a handful of underlays.
The Titans vs. Texans game line is a 4-point underlay.
The Giants @ Seahawks game we get a number of 1.5 that favors New York. Therefore the wrong team is favored and there is an overlay of 4 to 4.5 points. The wrong team favored overall tends to be an edge for the dog, though not necessarily within this line range.
It's easy to see covers by New England, Tennessee and the Giants this week.
Since posting this we have learned that Ryan Tannehill has been ruled out for the Titans due to a stomach bug. Rookie quarterback Malik Willis took the majority of the first-team snaps in practice this week and will get his first NFL start against the Texans.
The line has shifted to +1 on the news. As noted, there was already a 4-point underlay. Now we have around a 7-point underlay.
- Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com
