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The last week of the regular NFL season is typically one of the toughest to bet on as playoff bound teams tend to rest their star players while others have nothing more to play for than pride. Some teams are already thinking summer vacation. So which games still matter in Week 18 of the 2023-24 regular season? Let's take a look and find out.
Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts
Remarkably the AFC South division winner is yet to be decided. Three teams (Jaguars, Colts, Texans) sit with 9-7 records Straight Up.
Whichever team wins this one is in with at least a Wild Card bid, and perhaps the division title. A tie can still get either team in with a little help. This scenario is possible considering these teams tied back in September of last year.
The Colts have a slightly better chance of making the post season at 55% to 45% for Houston.
This game will be played on Saturday night at 8:15 pm ET.
Houston has moved from a -1 point road favorite to -2. The move makes sense as approximately 75% of the spread action was on Houston according to the AcePerHead internal data.
Our own number has the Colts as the favorite at -1.5.
"The time is now," Texans starting quarterback C.J. Stroud said of his team's stunning turnaround. Houston was widely seen as being in rebuild mode this year with the 2024-25 season targeted as one where they would begin to shine . "It's not next year. It's not the year after that. It's right now. We have the opportunity to control our own destiny. I'm excited to do that."
Houston's defense is allowing under 20 points per game since losing to the Colts in Week 2 while the offense is averaging over 23 points per game. Indianapolis' defense remains a concern. The Texans have only won two of the last eight in this series. Again, they are a much improved team while Indianapolis has also managed to turn things around.
Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins
A loss could mean the Buffalo Bills are out of playoff contention. They can still make the post season with a loss just as long as either the Pittsburgh Steelers or Jacksonville Jaguars lose OR the Texans-Colts game ends in a tie.
A win certainly makes things easier as they earn the AFC East title and second overall seed.
Miami is in no matter what. A win means the AFC East title and second overall seed while a loss simply means a Wild Card bid and tougher time on the road.
Other Important Games
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers - A win clinches the NFC South. A loss eliminates the Bucs from the playoffs.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans - A win clinches the division. A loss means they'll need some help with a Steelers loss and a Broncos loss. A Texans-Colts tie ends it for Jacksonville as well.
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears - Packers are in with a win.
- Dan Shapiro, Gambling911.com
