Miami vs. Louisville Betting Odds: Cardinals Hope to Stop Free Fall
Carrie Stroup here with your Miami vs. Louisville betting odds courtesy of our friends at Sportsbook
Sportsbook.ag Line: Louisville -8.5
No. 12 Louisville looks to stop their free-fall and prevent a three game losing skid when they host Miami on Saturday.
No. 12 Louisville is a mess right now as they've dropped two of their last three. Coach Rick Pitino’s crew has lost their last two games to inferior squads (at home versus NC State and on the road at Syracuse). The Cardinals were without G Chris Jones (13.6 PPG, 3.7 APG, 2.0 SPG) against Syracuse due to a suspension from Pitino, but local reports have Jones pegged to play versus the Hurricanes.
Miami has had an up-and-down year to this point, unable to put together a consistent stretch of conference wins. The Hurricanes do have a modest two-game run with victories over ACC bottom-feeders Boston College, and Virginia Tech. The Boston College game may be a positive turning point in the Hurricanes’ season.
Louisville and Miami have already met this season, with the Cardinals picking up a 63-55 win on Feb. 3 in Coral Gables (covering the 4.5-point spread). Jones was huge in that matchup, racking up 16 points, eight rebounds, five assists, and a season-high six steals. Miami really struggled to just 34% FG in that matchup as only one player shot over 50% on the entire squad.
Historically, Miami has never beaten or covered against Louisville in this series’ limited recent history (only 3 meetings since 2005). Louisville has been mediocre ATS this season at 10-14-1, and even worse at home (5-10-1 ATS), while Miami is 4-4 ATS on the road. Something has to give with the total of this game though, as while Miami has gone Over in nine of their previous 11 road games, Louisville has gone Under in eight of their last 10 home games.
Miami has shown that they can play up to the level of competition this season with top-25 wins over then-No. 8 Florida, and at No. 4 Duke. They also took No. 2 Virginia, down to the wire in two overtimes, before losing 89-80 (and being the only team to break the 80 point mark against the Cavaliers in the process). Lately, however, the Hurricanes look like a middling lower-tier conference team, having gone .500 in conference play since Jan. 17. It should be no surprise that behind this drop in production has been a severe dip in play from team leader, G Angel Rodriguez (12.6 PPG, 4.6 APG, 2.0 SPG), as Rodriguez’s numbers in the 10-game span from Jan. 17th to now are putrid (8.5 PPG, 23% FG, 19% 3PT).
Miami has been held together due to consistent scoring from G Sheldon McClellan (14.8 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 1.5 threes/gm on 38% 3PT), and an uptick in play from sophomore G Davon Reed (7.4 PPG) who’s averaged 11.4 PPG and is hot from the field (58% FG, 55% 3PT – 2.2 threes/gm) since working his way into a major role on offense (26+ minutes per game) – coincidentally, exactly when Rodriguez started to tail off in production. Getting all three backcourt weapons to mesh cohesively is a must for Coach Jim Larranaga if the Hurricanes cling to any realistic at-large NCAA hopes.
The rock for Miami all season has been their man in the middle, C Tonye Jekiri (8.5 PPG, 10.4 RPG – 1st in ACC, 14th in NCAA). The seven-footer is a legitimate candidate for All-ACC honors as one of the most improved players in the country. Reed and Jekiri led the Hurricanes in their eight point loss earlier in the month to Louisville, as Jekiri posted a double-double and Reed almost had a perfect night from the field (7-8 FG; 5-6 threes) for a team-high 19 points. Rodriguez struggled mightily with Louisville’s press and fouled out with only six points and one assist for the game.
Miami is a much better offensive team on the road, oddly enough (73 PPG – 19th in NCAA in road PPG) and their strong assist-to-turnover ratio (1.36, 20th in NCAA) bodes well against the aggressive Louisville press. If they can handle the press and set themselves up for open threes (35.9% of Miami points come from beyond the arc, 31st in NCAA) the Hurricanes will have a great chance at kicking Louisville while they’re down.
It may be just another game in February, but given the Cardinals’ recent play, this game is as close to a must-win February game as there is. The last 10 days might’ve been Coach Rick Pitino’s worst at the helm of Louisville: A loss as a 10.5-point home favorite to mediocre North Carolina State, compounded by the second suspension this season of starting senior guard, Jones, and then another loss at Syracuse (a squad that Louisville had owned historically) brings us to this game against middle-of-the-pack Miami.
The woes for Louisville start on offense, where the numbers say they’re decent (71.1 PPG, 84th in NCAA) their recent play says otherwise. Louisville hasn’t broken 68 points since January (five games) and is averaging 60.6 PPG in that span. The underlying issue with the lack of offense is that Louisville relies on their defense to turn into offense. Through Jan. 31 Louisville had a streak (to start the season) of 16 straight games with 12+ turnovers forced, and their season average of 14.2 TO/G is still good for 42nd in the nation. That said, they’re only forcing turnovers at a shockingly-low (for Louisville) rate of 10.2/game in ACC play, good for a four-way tie for 13th place in the conference. This is not historically indicative of a Rick Pitino coached squad. Left without transition buckets to feast on and Louisville’s poor perimeter shooting really hurts them (32% 3PT, 14th ACC). F Wayne Blackshear (10.5 PPG, 1.6 threes/gm) 0-0-0 line (points, rebounds, assists) in the recent loss to Syracuse – a game Louisville desperately needed Blackshear’s outside shooting against Syracuse’s zone -as proof to the lack of depth in Louisville’s offensive attack.
The Cardinals are blessed with the inside-outside duo of G Terry Rozier (18 PPG, 5.5 RPG 44% FG) and F Montrezl Harrell (15.4 PPG, 9.3 RPG, 58% FG), but those two alone can’t carry this offense to respectability, as the effective return of Jones will go a long way to determining the outcome of this game.
In Jones’ stead, sophomore G Quentin Snider (2.5 PPG) provided a season-high 13 points and hit three triples in the loss at the Carrier Dome. Coach Pitino also has to be encouraged by the recent play of F Chinanu Onuaku (3.4 PPG, 1.5 BPG) who went for eight points, 11 rebounds, and three blocks on Wednesday night.
