Wisconsin vs. Maryland Betting Line: Terrapins Just 3-11 ATS at Home

Carrie Stroup here with your Wisconsin vs. Maryland betting line for Tuesday’s College Basketball.

WISCONSIN BADGERS (25-2) at MARYLAND TERRAPINS (22-5)

Sportsbook.ag Line: Wisconsin -6.0, Total: 131

The top two squads in the Big Ten clash for the first time as conference members when No. 5 Wisconsin visits No. 14 Maryland.

No. 5 Wisconsin is as hot as any team in the nation not named Kentucky (10 game win streak; winners of 18 of last 19). Over the course of their current win streak though, they have not faced one top-25 team – this isn’t entirely their fault, as the Big Ten only boasts one other current top-25 team, Maryland.

The Terrapins are 4-1 in their last five games and are undefeated at home (7-0) in conference play. Maryland comes off recent home wins versus Indiana and Nebraska on Feb. 11 and this past Thursday and a road win at Penn State on Feb. 14. The long break will give them plenty of time to prepare for Coach Bo Ryan’s group, but doesn’t statistically provide Maryland with a huge advantage (9-4 SU, 3-8-1 ATS, 68 PPG w/3+ days rest). 

Place your 1st bet, get your 2nd bet free here

Wisconsin is fresh off wins at Penn State and at home versus Minnesota on Wednesday and Saturday, respectively. Both Wisconsin and Maryland have been unreliable ATS in recent games, with both Badger wins last week failing to cover.

Wisconsin is 8-1 SU (5-4 ATS) however as a road favorite to date this season and is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games away from the Kohl Center. Maryland has just been awful ATS at home (3-11, 1-5 last five), and is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games. The Terrapins are 0-1 SU (0-1 ATS) as a home underdog this season (Virginia). The total has gone Over in four of the last six contests Wisconsin has played on the road, while Maryland’s total has gone Under in four of its past six games.

Historically, Wisconsin is 3-2 SU (3-2 ATS) since 2000 with these two teams last facing off in Jan. 2009. G Traevon Jackson (9.4 PPG), who’s missed the Badgers last 10 games, will travel with the team to College Park but is not expected to play.

At the top of the list of things to watch for the Badgers will be how undefeated fill-in G Bronson Koenig (7.7 PPG, 2.3 APG, 40% 3PT) fares in his toughest individual matchup to date (Maryland’s stud freshman G Melo Trimble – 16.1 PPG, 3.1 APG), especially with the return of Jackson on the horizon. Koenig struggled in his only confrontation with an elite counterpart (Penn State’s D.J. Newbill), and if Trimble poses problems, then Coach Bo Ryan could conceivably reinstate Jackson as the starter when healthy for the defensive advantage the Badgers gain.

Wisconsin’s frontcourt is as good as anyone’s in the nation. C Frank Kaminsky (17.7 PPG, 8.3 RPG, 55% FG), F Sam Dekker (13.1 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 52% FG), and F Nigel Hayes (12.1 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 53% FG) should feast on Maryland’s lack of beef up front. Kaminsky has eclipsed 20 points in six of his past 10 contests, while Dekker just had a 10 game double-figures scoring streak snapped with an uncharacteristic 5-point outing versus Minnesota.

G Josh Gasser (7.1 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 1.3 threes/game) provides the Badgers with a spot-up shooting option and will be asked to have a big role on defense in containing the Terrapins’ multiple perimeter options.

While Wisconsin’s scoring defense is largely pace-driven (55.4 PPG, 1^st in Big Ten, 8^th in NCAA) given that they allow opponents to shoot it decently from the field (44.4% FG defense, 10^th Big Ten), the Badgers have started tightening up their grip on opponent’s shooting as of late (held four of last five opponents to 40% or under from the field). This is good because Wisconsin’s points-per-possession numbers have dipped to, gasp, 4^th (they were first just last week) in college basketball (1.2 PPP) and Wisconsin’s FG% offense (48%, 2^nd Big Ten) has dipped under 40% from the field in three of their past five games (something that hadn’t been done since Dec. 5^th versus Marquette).

Maryland boasts an average offense (67 PPG in conference, 6^th in Big Ten) predicated on the perimeter play of Trimble, G Dez Wells (14.6 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 2.8 APG) and F Jake Layman (13.6 PPG, 6.6 RPG, 49% FG). Nobody else on the Terrapins averages more than 6.6 PPG (G Richaud Pack) as nobody else besides Pack plays more than 19 minutes per game, either.

Maryland’s big three have been absolutely huge lately, as they’re all shooting above 50% FG in their past three games (Trimble is at 63%). Wells is filling it up to the tune of 18 points per game over his last three, while Trimble – in accordance with his marksmanship from the field – is going off for 21.3 points per game in that same span. Maryland’s biggest weapon is its ability to get to – and convert – from the charity stripe (25.2% of points come via FT, 12^th in NCAA; 74.8% FT, 18^th in NCAA). As the conference’s leading free throw shooter at 87.9%, Trimble also leads the league in attempts (190) and is the perfect closer when Maryland has a lead.

The Terrapins’ defense is also middle-of-the-road (64.3 PPG-allowed, 121^st NCAA; 40.4 FG% defense, 72^nd NCAA). That said, again, they get a huge boost from the free throw line – in this case, the points they prevent from the stripe. Maryland allows only 15.6% of opponents points from the stripe (12^th in NCAA) and “holds” opponents to 65.2% FT (1^st in Big Ten). Maryland’s last top-10 opponent, Virginia, shot a hair over 70% from the line at the XFINITY Center in December, so the free throw line will be an area of the court to focus on come Tuesday night.
- Carrie Stroup, Gambling911.com Senior Reporter