2015 Sun Bowl Betting Odds: Miami vs. Washington State
Carrie Stroup here with your 2015 Sun Bowl betting odds for the Miami Hurricanes vs. Washington State Cougars Washington State -3, Total: 62
MIAMI HURRICANES (8-4) vs. WASHINGTON STATE COUGARS (8-4)
A pair of 8-4 teams try to close out their seasons on a high note when Miami and Washington State meet Saturday in El Paso for the Sun Bowl.
The Hurricanes struggled in October -- losing 58-0 to Clemson, which prompted the firing of head coach Al Golden. But since then, they are 4-1 SU (3-2 ATS) with a solid 29.0 PPG.
The Cougars were pummeled 45-10 by Washington to end the regular season, but didn’t have star QB Luke Falk (concussion), who is expected to return for this game.
Both schools have significant betting trends in their favor, as Miami is 21-8 ATS in non-home games versus good teams (60% to 75% win pct.) since 1992, and all teams (like WSU) where the line is +3 to -3, after an ATS loss facing an opponent coming off 2+ straight ATS wins (UM) are just 50-98 ATS (66%) in the past five seasons.
However, Washington State is 7-0 ATS after having won two of its previous three games this season, and is facing an opponent that is 0-7 ATS in the past three seasons when facing a good passing team (250+ YPG) away from home.
Miami's offense is decent with 28.9 PPG and 401 total YPG this season, and has a healthy run/pass split of 33 rushing attempts per game and 35 passing attempts per contest. But while the ground game generates a mere 119 rushing YPG on 3.6 YPC, the air attack is much more potent with 282 passing YPG on 8.1 YPA.
Sophomore QB Brad Kaaya is having a tremendous season with 3,019 passing yards (62% completions, 8.4 YPA, 15 TD, 4 INT), and has completed at least 59% of his throws in all seven of his wins. Kaaya does a nice job of getting all his receivers involved, as the 'Canes have three players with at least 600 receiving yards, but none have reached 650 with junior WR Stacy Coley (645 rec yds, 3 TD) and senior WRs Rashawn Scott (620 rec yds, 5 TD) and Herb Waters (607 rec yds, 1 TD).
Sophomore RB Joseph Yearby is a capable back with 939 rushing yards (4.9 YPC) and 6 TD, but he hasn't produced a 100-yard rushing output since Oct. 1, going eight straight games without reaching the century mark. However, Yearby fell only one yard shy in the season finale when he ran for 99 yards on 22 carries (4.5 YPC) in the win at Pittsburgh, and he is also a quality receiver with 23 catches for 273 yards and 2 TD this year.
The Miami defense has not been very stingy this season in allowing 28.8 PPG on 407 total YPG, and those numbers jump to 32.2 PPG and 439 total YPG away from home. Neither the run-stop unit, which surrenders 211 YPG on 5.3 YPC, or the secondary, which allows opponents to complete 61% of their passes for 196 YPG (6.5 YPA), has really done its job this season. But after four straight games of not forcing multiple turnovers, the 'Canes have six takeaways in the past two contests. They will need to be aggressive on Saturday, as the Cougars have turned the football over 15 times in their four losses in 2015.
Washington State's pass-happy offense generates 32.4 PPG on 477 total YPG this season, with 72% of the plays taking to the air. The unbalance results in 397 passing YPG (7.0 YPA) and only 80 rushing YPG (3.6 YPC). The offense was a mess in the regular-season finale loss to Washington with 10 points and seven turnovers, but the good news is that
QB Luke Falk (71% completions, 4,266 pass yds, 7.2 YPA, 36 TD, 8 INT) and top WR Gabe Marks (99 rec, 1,125 yds, 14 TD) are both probable to play. Marks has been slowed by an injured ankle, and can't wait to have Falk back under center, as evidenced by his 23 catches for 202 yards and 3 TD over the past two games the duo has worked together.
Falk has thrown for at least 300 yards in nine of 11 contests this year, and has tossed at least 5 TD on four separate occasions. Six-foot-2 senior WR Dom Williams (73 rec, 997 yds, 11 TD) is also glad that his starting QB is returning, as Williams amassed 294 receiving yards with 4 TD catches in the past three games with Falk on the field.
When the team chooses to run the football, sophomore RB Gerard Wicks (599 rush yds, 5.9 YPC, 3 TD) is the main ball carrier, and he has put together two strong games in a row where he's totaled 165 yards on just 20 carries (8.3 YPC).
The Cougars defense has given up 28.8 PPG on 423 total YPG this season, and those subpar numbers are downright brutal away from home (36.7 PPG, 481 total YPG). While the passing defense surrenders 223 YPG on 6.8 YPA, the run-stop unit has been gashed for 199 YPG on 5.0 YPC. The one saving grace has been turnovers, with WSU generating at least two takeaways in nine of the past 11 games.
- Carrie Stroup, Gambling911.com Senior Reporter
